Chelters 2016 Antepost bets

[stephensmith84]

The mongs are the favourite backers who just follow the champion trainer of the day blind. They will have loved Nicholls and possibly Henderson in their time.

True, but you would have to admit that there's an awful lot of money to be made with this current crop of Mullins horses.

I wish that I jumped on Min at bigger prices, but I had a watching brief until its talent was confirmed.

I don't want to jinx anything, but if the Mullins string get there fit, Day 1 will be absolute carnage for the bookies - especially if they take on Min. I wish I was going with my Ricci coloured scarf.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm not usually a favourite backer but I made my mind up at an early stage to get these Mullins horses onside. After the bookies were cheering when Annie Power fell last season, I hope they are taken to the cleaners.......

[stephensmith84]

I heard that big Gary Wiltshire done his brains on the first day, and didn't return for the rest of the festival.

[iainmcf]

Cudnt agree more Faugheen...the bookies hopefully will get slaughtered on day 1,you have to laugh when they moan about the payouts when in one day, the grand national, they can recoup all their losses....good luck to everyone who have the multiples on for day 1.

[Old Vic]

I had a look at the results last year on the Monday after the Festival

www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Cheltenham-Festival-Winners-2015-374


There were 7/27 winning favourites but ..

Of note was that all these wins for favourites came in Grade 1 races ( i.e. favourites had a 50% strike rate at Grade 1 level ). Backing all favourites in Grade 1 races would have returned a £6 level stakes profit for the week.

In all 18/27 winners were returned at single figure prices with the main shocks arising in the handicaps.

[gjt7756]

Although mullins and ricci are a dominant force to be reckoned with I don't believe they are monopolising the sport and i think thats the last thing they would want, they enjoy the competition and as much as they love winning these big grade 1's it's beating the opposition that gives them just as much satisfaction, and they don't win everything, willie does fairly dominate in ireland but it is with a variety of owners, and yes he also dominates Cheltenham, you don't see the same form of domination at aintree or other festivals in england, yes ricci may well be tempted to switch codes but he would never fully switch, ricci loves the jumps and the quality of horse it takes to be a top grade 1 contender, it's already been well documented that ricci has placed some horses with flat trainers but I can't see him putting a world of wealth into it, however we've seen that ricci has come close with some flat ventures this season, not least of all placing in the melbourne cup, anyway without going any further into one just to reiterate the point i think the trio are good for the sport, and those "mongs" who just blindly follow the mullins band wagon of favourites on the day are a big part of the sport whether we as individuals like it or not, they come to the racing on the day, pay for their tickets which is all money towards the sport and makes it tick over, without them you'd see race courses closing at a rapid rate, and as flr the fairytale stories they still happen year after year at the festival, we had one with Coneygree last seaosn and before that we had Huntball, the low purchase equine talents still come through without the top top trainers and prevail on the big stage

[Morning Glory]

Well argued GJT

Mayo can defend himself but I think his mong rant is one you get from old timers who got used to seeing jollys overturned in say the Supreme. Things change and the mongs are those who just stick to their old ideas and dont keep an open mind. I might be a mong myself - Min is a terrible price imo.

The other bit of it which I understand is that it can make all your value seeking and form study etc. look like a complete waste of time if the game just becomes about backing Mullins trained favourites.

[Old Vic]

Good posts but can we please drop the use of "mong' please.

Mayo thats a yellow card.

[Sprinter]

Absolutely nothing wrong with backing favourites. There was no end of experts lining up to take the great Sprinter Sacre apart before his Arkle.

If you believe in the wisdom of crowds you would back them all the time.

Betting markets are probably as efficient or inefficient as any other depending on the amount of information in the public domain. The fact that a level stakes profit could have been made backing favourites in cheltenham grade 1 races could reflect that these are better informed than the handicaps where the crowd does not have the same quality of information.

Bottom line is we all find different systems that work ( or dont !) for us and no need to insult others who go a different way. I certainly dont have all the answers which is why a board like this should has some value.

[Istabraq]

Obviously the main focus is on the championship races and big novices but I've taken a look further afield and had an e/w double, On The Fringe 4/1 (Foxhunters) and Josies Orders 3/1 (Cross Country).
19/1 double on the win and 5/2 place double as some insurance.

On The Fringe proved he's the best hunter around last year and I'm not sure there's anything new that will challenge him or old timer that will improve past him.
Josies Orders looks to be the next star in the cross country sphere and as the race is no longer a handicap they'll be off levels, both his Cheltenham victories this year were gained in my view with a little in hand and having the services of Nina Carberry is a huge positive

[Ballybeen]

I'm with you on both Istabraq. I see Long Run now likely to have to miss the Foxhunters too now.

[gjt7756]

Thats is a nice double you've put up there, I've actually backed both horses already but in multiples and not a straight double, at those odds i think i'll get on that now!! And referring back to the previous posts those people who back the short price favourites on the day are no doubt backing the same horses we have, the only difference being we have a deeper connection to the sport, we study form in our spare time and get on the ante post prices to seek the value, we spend our time talking about it on this blog and all because at the end of the day we love it, I'm relatively new to this forum but it's one of the best things I've joined and i love everyone voicing their opinions and putting their selections up for all to look at

[TheRowebot]

Davy Russell today suggesting VVM should go for the mares - does he not know about my antepost day 1 Acca?!

[iainmcf]

Davy must have forgot about your acca Rowebot and the thousand of others ha!

[A_Horsie]

Davy Russell today suggesting VVM should go for the mares - does he not know about my antepost day 1 Acca?!

This is the same Davey Russell that said Bradstock should lose his training license if he ran Coneygree in the GC if I remember correctly!