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Richard Forristal on where Willies go. Interesting thoughts on Nicols Canyon.
In the case of Min, the finishing touches will take place at home, where he reportedly doesn't display the tendency to pull that he has done in his two Irish runs. He might be good enough to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle regardless, but, if he gets as lit up at Cheltenham as he did on Saturday, he will need to be pretty exceptional to win.
Min was more than just a little free. Essentially, he tanked with Ruby Walsh, and that is a real concern for an inexperienced horse, as the Festival could blow his mind.
If he reacts the way he did on Saturday, he won't get the same easy lead, so it could all end in tears.
Walsh, on the assumption that he won't be getting off him, probably has two options, because trying to ride a normal race on Min will likely lead to another futile wrestling match. He will surely either try to bury him in and put him to sleep, or bounce him out and hope that he spits the bit out. I'd venture that the latter tactic will be deployed. If Min is as good as he looks, then they will back him to burn everything off if he gallops some way sensibly in front. It is the tactic they settled on at a similar remove with Vautour, which is significant.
Second guessing the indomitable champion trainer is a hazardous pursuit, but Yorkhill might be the one to join Min in the two-miler, as he travels surprisingly comfortably for a horse with his profile and a pedigree that screams stamina. Crucially, he is now a Grade One winner over flights at the trip, and I'd be amazed if Graham Wylie didn't let something tackle Min.
Wylie's Bellshill looks a natural fit for the Neptune. Also now a Grade One winner at this intermediate trip, he races nicely behind the bridle, while his Up For Review is bound for the Albert Bartlett over three miles. Long Dog, owned by Rich Ricci (below), will surely swerve the Supreme in favour of the Neptune. Like Nichols Canyon last year, he is a dual Grade One winner going to the Festival that doesn't get a lot of credit.
Continuing to underestimate him could prove costly, so deciding between him and a horse like Bellshill won't be easy for Walsh, who doesn't get off many Ricci horses. Presumably, Ricci's Annie Power or Vroum Vroum Mag will run in the mares' hurdle.
Douvan is Arkle-bound, Shaneshill is an obvious JLT contender and Pont Alexandre appeals as an RSA horse, likewise Killultagh Vic which would also have the gears for the JLT. Patrick Mullins will have options in the four-miler, with Black Hercules quite possibly the pick of them.
Again, Walsh may have tough decisions to make with the novice chasers, but chances are there will be more learning in the meantime.
Of the Gigginstown Stud team in Closutton, which exists to some degree like an independent principality within the yard, Gangster could be an Albert Bartlett horse and Outlander maybe a JLT contender.
Valseur Lido may end up in the Ryanair Chase if his Lexus-winning stable-mate Don Poli tackles the Gold Cup alongside fellow Gigginstown representatives Don Cossack and Road To Riches, while I'd still hazard that Djakadam and Vautour will contest the grand finale.
Clearly, events in the meantime might yet clarify that matter, while there is only one race for Un De Sceaux. Then there are Mullins's elite hurdlers. Faugheen is his leading Champion Hurdle hope, and Mullins has indicated that he will take in the BHP Irish Champion Hurdle en route.
That could lead to a enthralling rematch with Nichols Canyon. Arctic Fire - which looked out of place in the three-miler at Christmas, might also go there - but it is Nichols Canyon's fate that will be the most interesting.
Notwithstanding that we are back in the realm of underestimating Nichols Canyon, should Faugheen settle the score, is there a curveball to be thrown here? Might Wylie countenance a tilt at the World Hurdle? This is a race that doesn't have the same aura but with which the astute owner has such a storied link courtesy of his first really good horse, the former Howard Johnson-trained Inglis Drever.
A stayer on the Flat, Nichols Canyon has won two Grade Ones over two-and-a-half, and his stamina has been to the fore in two thrilling triumphs this term. He could be vulnerable over two miles on good ground at Cheltenham, and the three-mile division is flimsy.
It isn't a prospect that you'd expect to hear mooted ahead of the re-match at Leopardstown in a fortnight's time. If Faugheen were to re-establish his superiority, though, it is something that might yet be explored very seriously.
Is anyone covering the Pricewise selections in multiples? I only have two of the recent ones, Arctic fire and Simonsig, just wondering what others there are, did someone mention RTR in the Gold cup/Ryanair
Last edited by MrMcGoldrick; 19 January 2016, 05:33 PM.
Apparently Mullins has said that Valeur Lido is an intended runner in the Gold Cup whcih i don't believe for a minute, so if you're playing him in the Ryanair take the NRNB insurance
Peace And Co @ 14/1 CH
Special Tiara @ 12/1 CC
Let's Dance @ 20/1 TH
Limini @ 5/2 MNH
More Of That @ 5/1 RSA
Vibrato Valtat @ 14/1 RYAN
Lucky 63, 63 bets * £0.25 EW
Thistlecrack at 10's, Black Hercules at 20's and Limini at 8's are my best singles. I've got the 4 Mullins day 1 hot pots at 300's, and the first 3 of those at 100's. At my last count I had 49 multiples already placed, with many including Douvan and Faugheen.
Plenty of bets already down the drain including Cyrus Darius, Moon Racer, VVM (Ryanair) and Kitten Rock.
He gets a good write up in Mark Howard's book but I'd have expected to have seen him on a racecourse by now, although he did have an entry the other week but wasn't amongst the final decs.
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