2016 Gold Cup

[Old Vic]

Ted Walsh on RTE on re Lexus winner Don Poli - "Djakadam would have him for breakfast"

( meaning Djakadam now considered No1 Gold Cup prospect in Walsh househould ?)


What will Bryan Cooper ride in the Gold Cup?

[iainmcf]

The King George form is the best form on offer so far, timeform revised ratings after that race...Don Cossack 183, Cue Card 181 and interestingly Vautour 180P,......Djackadam on 171 so has a bit to prove yet and is a false fav for Gold Cup in my book.Perhaps Djackadam no 1 Gold Cup prospect in Ted Walsh household but pretty sure its Vautour in Ruby Walsh household and timeform experts seem to agree.

[Yeehaa]

Gold Cup line up

Ruby on Djakadam ( all blue today)
Brennan on Cue Card.
Cooper will ride Don Cossack.
David Mullins on Don Poli.
Carberry on Road to Riches.
Townend on Vautour.
Wayne on Smad Place.
Russell on Sir Des Champs.
Fehily or Geraghty on OFaolains Boy

anything else?

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think Ruby will try to influence the choice of target for Vautour as he won't want to give up the ride but his head must be telling him that Djakadam is the one of those two guaranteed to stay the trip. It's often been mentioned that Ruby would try to keep UDS and Vautour apart so why not these, even more so given they are under the same ownership, the bookies must think the same given the prices now on offer for the Ryanair.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Gold Cup line up

Ruby on Djakadam ( all blue today)
Brennan on Cue Card.
Cooper will ride Don Cossack.
David Mullins on Don Poli.
Carberry on Road to Riches.
Townend on Vautour.
Wayne on Smad Place.
Russell on Sir Des Champs.
Fehily or Geraghty on OFaolains Boy

anything else?

Foxrock, First Lieutenant, On his own? I'm not sure you could rule any of them out completely, surely have to consider them if you're putting Sir Des Champs in the mix

[Istabraq]

On His Own looks like a serious Grand National candidate to me, his Gold Cup chance I think came in a poor renewal when just denied in 2014.
Many Clouds proved that weight is no longer a barrier with the way they set the National course up these days, a thorough stayer is what's required as the smaller obstacles allows them all to go that much quicker, On His Own will be rated around the 160 mark which would probably give him around 11st 8lb or thereabouts.

Besides, there already looks to be a significant Irish presence heading for the Blue Riband....

[MrMcGoldrick]

I just mention those three because Sir Des Champs was in mayos list and all 3 looked brighter prospects in the Lexus. I heard an interview with Paddy Brennan on atr this morning and he's very bullish, he said he will not have a problem getting the trip

[Istabraq]

They would all be worthwhile of a place in the line up Mr M, problem is in such a strong year they could run the race of their life and finish 6th.
These heavy ground Irish races are often run at a false pace and the distance between horses doesn't always show the superiority that exists, that superiority is sometimes only demonstrated on better ground when racing at championship speed.
That's not to disrespect any horse but if the form of the Lexus is to be taken literally then On His Own probably ran to a mark of approx 165 which would be the highest rating he's ever achieved a few days short of his 12th birthday and First Lieutenant would have achieved a rating around 20lb higher than his previous rating, it's far more likely that Don Poli ran well below his mark and the time (6m 36s) which was 54 secs slower than standard suggests this is the case....

[MrMcGoldrick]

Could be right Isty but Willie Mullins body language suggested that he wasn't happy with what he saw. Maybe Don Poli will turn out not to be as good as they thought, somewhere along the line these performances have to be taken at face value, and as far as the Gold cup is concerned Djakadam is on the verge of looking like a good thing to me

[Istabraq]

and as far as the Gold cup is concerned Djakadam is on the verge of looking like a good thing to me

Cue Card !!!
Also, I wouldn't dismiss Don Cossack or Don Poli on what we've seen this week, Don Poli proved he jumps and stays at Chelt, Don Cossack has a few questions to ask after failed raids in the past but he went into this week as the highest rated chaser in training.
Plenty of reputations are put on the line over Xmas and many take a hit but come back in the Spring, those with form around Cheltenham such as O'Faorlains Boy and Holywell could also come into consideration in time as well as CC, DP and DC

[iainmcf]

For me the forgotten horse is Road To Riches, a length or so behind Djackadam in last years Gold Cup and after a perfectly satisfactory return this season was forced to miss the Lexus due to a setback.Being last years winner of the Lexus its perfectly feasable to think he would have went very close in the race the other day so on that basis 20/1 looks a great value bet in he hope that he gets over whatever the setback was.With the consensus on here that Vautour is Ryanair bound, Djackdam beating a bunch of stayers over 2m 4 the last time, Don Cossack falling last time out and Cue Card as much a doubtfull stayer of 3m 2f as Vautour is, if he ran, then Road To Riches is worth a punt at this stage of the season for me.I dont like to back 2 in a race and Vautour is my main but with the doubts surrounding him I'm happy to take a chance on Road To Riches.

[Istabraq]

You still can't dismiss Vatour, a 6yo in just his 6th chase start getting chinned on the line by the best British staying chaser with the pair pulling 13l clear of the third, still a top effort.
As I've said before, in my opinion the only thing that stops Vatour heading to the Gold Cup along with stablemate Djakadam is the reluctance of the Ricci's to run two of their against each other at the top level

[MrMcGoldrick]

I don't think I'd be dismissing anything really, just based on various races, and in a normal year, Djakadam would be much shorter than he is now. This isn't a normal year though as a few have pointed out, like Iain points out rtr is a forgotten horse, I'd not given him much thought, but he must be considered. You just have to take a position if you want to get involved AP so go with your gut, my gut tells me there is more chance of Vautour turning up in the QM than the GC, but the Ryanair must be favourite. If most have backed him for the GC then I hope he runs there for their sake, but that's AP betting, I've been quietly building a position on Djakadam but it's a personal opinion and could be wrong

[Istabraq]

All fair points Mr M, if you'd told me 2 months ago that Djakadam would be fav for the Gold Cup I wouldn't have believed you, but a setback for Coneygree, stamina possibly exposed for Vatour, Don Cossacks jumping issues once again highlighted and Don Poli not impressing in the Lexus, all suggest Djakadam has the best crudentials for this seasons renewal.
You are a braver man than me, I am happy getting stuck into something at 5/2 on the day having ignored the AP 12s, 10s, 8s etc, and having taken a view you are now rewarded with some very valuable vouchers, let's hope he stays fit and well.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I always load up for the fez with AP bets Isty, some work out well others not so much. I'm not much of an AP bettor for anything other than the fez, so I get carried away, this year I've managed to get Douvan and Faugheen doubled up about 6 times at decent prices, and Vautour in any one of 3 races courtesy of an acca I placed that came up and, on a whim, I retained the selections when I'd placed the acca and added Vautour x3. Then I decided to stick a bit every now and again onto Djakadam, when it works out it gives me scope to play around more during Chelt week