2016 Champion Hurdle

[loveracing]

It can't be hard to better the results from last year.

[Old Vic]

[Morning Glory]

Annie a cert to run here now then.

MTOY is the best horse left in the race but you cant back him after a two year break. unlikely comebacks were the early season theme but this is too much.

TNO just doesnt seem the horse of old.

Left with the four 5 year olds, Nicols Canyon, Camping Ground and Annie.

A Punjabi type year ?

[stephensmith84]

While I'm in the Identity Thief camp, even if he wins it's not as if he'll post a big rating doing so.

Min, Douvan, VVM and something in the 3m handicap will be my Tuesday portfolio. Can't see me investing more than a £10 note on this Champion Hurdle.

[iainmcf]

Douvan could canter round in Arkle then canter round in Champion Hurdle.....this race is now Champion Hurdle in name only this year....

[Faugheen_Machine]

What about the outsiders, can a strong case be made for any of them?

Sempre Medici, Hargam and Old Guard all ran solid races in December, of the three, who do you think will have the best finishing position?

[loveracing]

What about the outsiders, can a strong case be made for any of them?

Sempre Medici, Hargam and Old Guard all ran solid races in December, of the three, who do you think will have the best finishing position?

SM for me based on that form, that was his first run of the season compared to the others.

[Istabraq]

What about the outsiders, can a strong case be made for any of them?

Sempre Medici, Hargam and Old Guard all ran solid races in December, of the three, who do you think will have the best finishing position?

To me if there's a G1 race that will see a big price winner this is it.
Old Guard definitely impressed until that Kempton run and it's worth remembering that was his 4th run of the season, could be a case of too much in too short a time (a modern problem), in what is now a much weaker race he could have a decent chance.
It goes against my beliefs to make a case for a 5yo but last years batch of Triumph horses could figure, perhaps Hargam has teh best chance of these having shown speed over the quicker New Course at Chelt and at Kempton since their Triumph

[Sprinter]

The 5 year olds are an each way bet - 25% of them have finished in the frame in past decade.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-6-28

6yo: 3-5-34

7yo: 4-2-26

8yo: 1-4-15

9yo: 1-2-8

10yo: 0-0-4

11yo+: 0-1-10
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-f....8LFvFaqG.dpuf

[Faugheen_Machine]

That's better than I thought Sprinter.

2 years ago, Countrywide Flame ran a blinder when 3rd in Hurricane Fly's second Champion Hurdle - and that would be a better CH than this years.

[Istabraq]

That's better than I thought Sprinter.

Yes, but those stats are a little distorted, the days of 20+ runners are gone and the race usually has 8 or 9 runners with a couple of 5yo challengers so they will sneak a place occasionally, the majority still end up well down the field.
I've said before it's not so much a 5yo thing it's more a lack of speed issue.
A horse that went down the Triumph route as 4yo given the extreme stamina that race requires, I don't think will have enough speed to win a champion hurdle.
The Triumph is a brutal race and I see those horses being more Stayers than 2 milers.

I have erased the Katchit champion hurdle victory from my memory and consider that race never to have taken place....

[mayo]

Nicols Canyon weak on the machine ? #badthingscomein3s

[Faugheen_Machine]

I have erased the Katchit champion hurdle victory from my memory and consider that race never to have taken place....

[mayo]

Catshit beat a champion chaser and champion hurdler

[Istabraq]

Nicols Canyon weak on the machine ? #badthingscomein3s

Mullins champion hurdle raid this year must be jinxed