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ALMOST every Grade 1 race at the Cheltenham Festival these days is dominated by a Willie Mullins-trained horse or two and the big problem for ante-post punters is that most of the credible opposition is in the same yard as well. Last year Mullins saddled the 1-2-3 in the Stan James Champion Hurdle and it can’t be a very big price that he will do the same again. Faugheen is the reigning champion and will be extremely hard to beat after his easy win at Kempton over Christmas. He looked right back to his best and, while he certainly wasn’t at his best when winning the Champion last year, it looks like Mullins is going to give him a run in the Irish Champion this time and Faugheen looks the type who improves for racing. He will probably win again, but he’s long odds-on and no-one needs telling that! Next in the market comes six-time Grade 1 winner Nichols Canyon, the horse who took Faugheen’s unbeaten record in the Morgiana at the start of the season. He looks the sort who saves all his best for the track and it is pretty easy to make a case out for him at 13-2 as well. However, he was well beaten in the Neptune on his only run at the track and it is hard to see Ruby Walsh on Faugheen letting Nichols Canyon get his own way out front as he did at Punchestown. It is unlikely two horses from the same yard will take each other on up front in the Champion, but both seem best when allowed to dominate and it is likely we are going to see a much stronger pace in this year’s race than there was 12 months ago. If that’s the case it is possible to make a strong case for last year’s runner-up Arctic Fire, as his style of racing would be ideally suited by a strong gallop and he did really well to chase home Faugheen last year, given the way the race was run. The problem for ante-post punters is that the last time we saw him he ran no sort of race over three miles in the mud. However, there were obvious excuses owing to the trip and ground, and on the way he finished the race last year there is a definite chance he could reverse the placings with Faugheen provided the pace is stronger. Every year Arctic Fire seems to peak for Cheltenham and in a race likely to cut up it seems to me the 10-1 about him each-way, with the non-runner no bet concession, is the best value on offer. Of the rest, Peace And Co looked a superstar as a juvenile and can be forgiven his comeback run at Cheltenham when everything that could go wrong did. However, he clearly has issues with settling, and just how good was the juvenile hurdle form? It was probably pretty strong, as both Top Notch, Hargam and Old Guard have run well against older horses, but not to the extent that last year’s fouryear-olds seem anything out of the ordinary. Nicky Henderson has won the Champion five times, including with a five-year-old in See You Then, but Peace And Co looks to be bumping into a vintage group of two-mile hurdlers and will have to improve significantly to win. The vibes aren’t great about My Tent Or Yours but if the ground were to come up heavy Camping Ground might come into the equation. However, the likelihood of it being in his favour is pretty slim and, even on soft ground, he shouldn’t be anything like as short a price as the firms betting non-runner no bet seem to think.
Pricewise
Pricewise
Thks KSS.
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