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She'd be the right fav if she'd ran in (and won) a champion hurdle trial this season. The fact she hasn't ran in a competitive race for 12 months and hasnt ran over 2 mile is a massive negative for me. I agree that it looks like a weak champion hurdle but it'll still take some winning for a horse with no sort of champion hurdle prep.
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I'm not as sure that it's a weak race, I take the view that Faugheen was clear on ratings and the rest are bunched up behind.
Some good horses in the mix. I'm leaning towards Identity Thief e/w, but the price is absolutely miserable.
I'm not a layer, having only layed one horse in my life. That was At Fishers Cross who richly deserved it. But I'll consider a decent lay on Annie Power in the Champion Hurdle. Even at her best, I cannot see how she's clear of these horses.
I see 3-4 horses finishing in a line, with the tougher animal getting a head in front.Comment
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And what 4 horses clould you see in a blanket finish, Arctic fire was nicley clear in 2nd last year, I don't see any of hendersons horses getting near the mullins two of Arctic fire and Annie power if she runs, hargam, top notch and peace co have all let down and been part of what now looks a poor renewal of the triumph last year, my tent of yours to put it bluntly looked fat at kempton and would take an incredible amount of work to get him race fit and compete, and theres the new one who just doesn't do it for meComment
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I think everyone is underestimating Sempre Medici at a much bigger price of 33/1. He is better "place" money than Identity Thief's win price and he saw off this horse by 5L last spring.Comment
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I think Hargam has a chance if the ground is good. Artic Fire and Annie Power can obviously win the race but neither have been missed in the market. Personally I'd back NC ahead of the other WPM runners.
I'd advise against anyone having a bet in this race at the moment thought as I could easily as it being 7/2 the field on the Tuesday morning.Comment
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..... Unless you fancy one at a big priceComment
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Trying to figure this out - I doubt if a decision is made on AP yet and probably depends on a few private races at Willies.
Annie is about 4s for both Tuesday races on Betfair and now c16s for the Stayers.
She had been about 4/5 for the mares and 5s for World Hurdle.
I think old odds implied there was a 75% chance she would run in Mares and 25% chance in stayers.
Now they seem to say it is 20% chance she runs in Mares and 70% chance in Champion Hurdle and 10% in Stayers.
The 10% in Stayers is the probably about the chance that something happens Thistlecrack but call between other two races is a closer call than that ?Comment
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MG, I approach this like:
What race should she run in ?
What price should she be for that race ?
What would be the best alternative ?
Answer - Mares
Answer - 2/5
Answer - World Hurdle
The fact they are now talking about the Champion hurdle demonstrates how difficult it is second guessing, Ricci/Mullins horses above all others, their engagements.
I can see the interest in trying to work it out and nick some value but I have no idea how they reach their decisions and backing up your view with an outlay of your hard earned cash is dangerous, I would suggest you have more chance of backing a NR than a winner.
I don't know whether you train a 2m 4f horse any differently if switching them to 2m or 3m, or how long it takes to get a horse 2m or 3m perfect.
Does a 400m runner change his/her training regime if suddenly switching to the 200m or 800m, I'd suggest there has to be some change.
I just don't buy this champion hurdle bid.
Someone said the other day that she is becoming the worst placed horse in training, they could well be proved right.....Comment
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VVM is the problem. If they think they can win the Mares anyway then they might decide to take their chance. Also Ricci doesnt seem the shy retiring type so probably loving all the attention.Comment
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in other news MTOY misses the Kingwell - straight to Cheltenham without a prep
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I have him in a few accas but wsant impressed with the Kempton run. The old MTOY would have been pulling out Geraghtys arms.Originally posted by Yeehaa View Postin other news MTOY misses the Kingwell - straight to Cheltenham without a prepComment
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Anthony Bromley, racing manager for Top Notch's owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, said: "It was so pleasing to see him get his head in front after some tough races in defeat this season.
"All roads lead to Cheltenham now. All being well, he'll run in the Champion Hurdle and we'll see if he can sneak a place."
Bromley said it is still "up in the air" whether last season's Triumph hero Peace And Co would join Top Notch in the two-mile showpiece on the opening day of next month's Festival on March 15.
He has been bitterly disappointing in two starts so far this term, but underwent a minor respiratory procedure following his latest short-priced defeat at SandownComment
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I don't know whether Old Guard will win it but it is a lot more open now Faugheen is out of the race," said Nicholls, speaking at a Cheltenham preview after racing at Ascot on Saturday.
"Old Guard loves Cheltenham and he loves better ground. Although he was beaten on Boxing Day I was glad I ran him as I've now given him a month off so he will go there a fresh horse.
"Annie Power was talked about for the Mares' Hurdle and World Hurdle and now she is being talked about winning the Champion Hurdle but I can't see her winning it.
"It is a very open race. My Tent Or Yours has not been seen for two years so I can't see him winning while Peace And Co has had his problems.
"Nichols Canyon and Arctic Fire are good horses but only ran ordinary races the other day. The one I like is Identity Thief."Comment
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This is why I would bring SM into the e/w mix. He was ran a blinder 1L behind a race fit Old Guard in December.Originally posted by mayo View PostComment
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