Andrisiggy Cheltenham Bets

[andrisiggy]

Hello, I thought I would try and post all of my selections in one thread if that is ok? It will help me keep a record of what I have done for a start.
I have tried to use some trends in each race and read through a helluva lot of preview notes and other guides to try and narrow things down. I have done OK the last couple of years but I remember King Harald being my first winner some years ago on day 3 of the festival I think. It was a long time coming anyway....

I will try and post up each race, although I still have a lot to do and will put up tables of my rankings if I can get it to work. Before that though, I have backed A King to be top trainer on betfair at 100/1. The reasons being...

1) I like Sego Success and Ned Stark on the first day
2) Shorties tend to get beaten. I am struggling to get away from Douvan, faugheen, UDS but chances are they won't all win
3) if Don Poli runs in the RSA and Annie Power in the stayers, King could be in a decent position at the end of the first day, and still have fancied runners to come in Balder Succes, Pain au Chocolat and Karazek. Anyway, on to the races..

[andrisiggy]

Supreme
HORSE	total
Nichols Canyon30	13
Outlander44	12
Black Hercules93	11
Douvan59	11
Dicosimo47	11
L´Ami Serge66	9
Parlour Games71	9
Qewy31	7
Sub Lieutenant12	9
Alvisio Ville30	8
Beast Of Burden32	8
Bentelimar37	8
Jollyallan38	8
McKinley30	8
Some Plan37	8
Boru´s Brook22	7
Seedling88	7
Shaneshill86	7
Tell Us More65	6
Zip Top16	6
Kalkir30	6
Karezak45	6
All Hell Let Loose16	5
Aminabad16	5
Jolly´s Cracked It31	5
On Tour31	5
The Grey Taylor17	5
Vago Collonges17	5
Cardinal Walter31	4
Nathans Pride33	4
Phil´s Magic31	4
Sizing John73	4
Velvet Maker38	4
Arzal31	3
Chieftain´s Choice31	3
Golantilla73	3
Kiama Bay45	3
Max Dynamite16	3
Silver Concorde30	3
Aso31	2
Hold The Line16	2
Laser Hawk83	2
Commissioned114	1
Dabadiyan198F	0
Okotoks72	-2

updated to format table

[andrisiggy]

Ok, well that didn't really appear as i would have liked but I struggled with the table option. The numbers immediately after the horse is the days since last run and the following figure is the number of points I have allocated it. Most of the top ranked horses are likely to run elsewhere which is infuriating as i really fancy Nichols Canyon for this and think this is a better distance than the neptune. If he turns up here I will have a bet but I find it difficult to get away from Douvan. He is slightly ahead of the other confirmed runners but the confidence coming from the yard and Ruby seems to be massive. I am sure they have talked horses up before, but I cannot really remember them being so strong about a horse.

I have had a bet months ago on Silver Concorde but that looks to be done. The other one i am keen on is Sub Lieutenant. there is a chance he will go to the Neptune but I think this would be a better option. he was available at 1000/1 on betfair so it doesn't look good, but i had a couple of quid on in the hope he turns up on the day.

Douvans price isn't really one i will be backing on the day other than in a multiple or 2. My bets here will probably be to look at the bets bookie offers on the day and stick some money on Alvisio Ville and L'ami Serge to win. Then if Douvan wins or they lose, i am likely to get my stake back for something else. If they do win, I will have a nice little bundle to start the festival with

[andrisiggy]

Arkle
HORSE	total
Vautour51	20
Un De Sceaux44	19
Three Kingdoms45	15
Vibrato Valtat31	15
Clarcam44	14
Josses Hill32	12
Top Gamble31	12
Un Ace87	12
Gitane Du Berlais38	11
Chris Pea Green65	9
Dunraven Storm81	9
Melodic Rendezvous17	9
Smashing47	9
Blood Cotil31	8
Le Vent D´Antan30	8
Sizing Granite65	8
Adriana Des Mottes30	8
Grumeti38	7
God´s Own73	6
Sail By The Sea39	6
Sgt Reckless60F	6
Cold March24	5
Court Minstrel94	4
Stellar Notion45	2
Ted Veale51	2
Turn Over Sivola31	2

[Old Vic]

Andris if you are cutting and pasting in a table hit the first A on the formatting toolbar.

[andrisiggy]

Vautour is unlikely to run but I would be interested if he did. I cannot forget last years run. I was very keen in the run up to the festival and loved the way he dominated from the front. But the same can be said for UDS in the last race. I cannot see how anything can beat him and I cannot see him falling either. I understand the argument about maybe the downhill fence. But seriously, Ruby, on this horse, knowing how good he is will be able to gently pop over it as required and then walk away from any runners still in the same postcode.

People talk about horses destroying other horses by beating them- if that is true what would Clarcam be thinking in the parade ring? Again though, I can't back UDS in a single at the price, so i will be looking to use paddy power to refund stakes on Vibrato Valtat and Three Kingdoms (if he runs) as I think they are the two likely winners if something strange does occur.

[andrisiggy]

Cheers OV- i will give it a go

[andrisiggy]

ultima
HORSE	total
Ned Stark38	13
Carole´s Destrier24	11
Shutthefrontdoor120	8
Annacotty45	8
Living Next Door73	7
Knock A Hand22	6
Rocky Creek17	6
Sausalito Sunrise74	5
Gevrey Chambertin83	5

[andrisiggy]

I have to admit, I haven't run the trends through for every horse entered. I have to do this manually now and looking through 90 horses to see how many runs in the season, novice status and form over 3 miles would take a bit more time than I have. So i got the likely candidates and had a look at them.
I have backed Ned Stark and am surprised that Annacotty is 18/1 for this. I backed him the last day and proved to myself that I cannot judge horses in running- watching on my laptop i had written off his chances when the signal dropped out as he was coming down the hill looking beaten in my eyes and unlikely to make an impression. When everything came back up they were focussing on him as the winner. He must have come up the hill very impressively so I am pretty sure I will be backing him if he runs here.

[andrisiggy]

Right, I haven't been able to spend as much time on this as I would like, and the draw of reading preview night reports instead of looking through the RP doesn't help. Now that the cards are beginning to reduce, I am hoping it will get a bit easier. Obviously Sub Lieutenant not turning up is a bit disappointing- i was really hoping for a run and there are not really that many runners but never mind.

For the first day, I am pretty set apart from the Novices Hcap Chase. I will have more runners in the first 2 races than I usually would but that is more to try and take advantage of bookie offers. so

Supreme- I think Douvan will win and will back him to win with Will hills, but have similar win bets at paddys on Shaneshill and L'ami serge.

Arkle- I have backed UDS AP so will not be going in again. I will back VV and Three kingdoms with Paddy Power.

Ultima is still a bit up in the air but the shortlist is Ned Stark, Annacotty and Gallant Oscar. I was keen on Shutthefrontdoor but i guess he is aimed more at the National than this.

Champion Hurdle. I don't think I have ever got Hurricane Fly right. I bought in to him not being able to win at Cheltenham- he had won small field G1s on soft in Ireland and so I avoided him. Then I backed him to follow up. Then I thought he couldn't regain the crown. This year, he has to be too old- but he will probably win as I won't have a penny on him. I am certain Faugheen will win- he seems to be able to kick his way through hurdles without slowing down if needs be. I will also back Jezki at just about an ew price. He may prove he was unlucky last year, but I didn't think it would affect the result and I think he will come up short again. I will post up my trend scores below.

The mares doesn't really have enough trends for me to run through. I am not sure what to think of Annie Power- she isn't Quevega and seems to respond to racing so I worry about first time out, but i don't think any of the others would get close to her world hurdle performance. I do like Polly Peachum EW.

The national hunt chase is still a bit up in the air with unclear runners, but i like Sego Success. I have backed Don Poli AP and hopefully that saga will become clearer over the weekend....

[andrisiggy]

ChampHurdle
HORSE	total
Hurricane Fly44	13
Jezki44	13
The New One52	12
Arctic Fire44	11
Faugheen74	11
Garde La Victoire38	10
Un De Sceaux44	9
Kitten Rock24	7
Annie Power311	5
Purple Bay74	4
Sign Of A Victory24	3
Tiger Roll24	3
Vaniteux68	3
Bertimont52	2
Irving24	2
Plinth44	1

[andrisiggy]

NationalHunt
HORSE	total
Sego Success59	12
Ballyculla18	10
Knockanrawley17	10
Thunder And Roses23	10
Grand Vision59	9
Cogry31	8
Doing Fine31	8
Perfect Candidate45	8
Return Spring38	8
The Job Is Right23	8
The Young Master80	8
Very Wood23	8
Wounded Warrior52	8
Theatre Queen43	8
Top Totti38	8
Apache Jack23	6
Cadeau George23	6
Cause Of Causes47	6
Don Poli71	6
Heathfield44	6
Perfect Gentleman74	6
Smiles For Miles38	6
The Crafty Butcher17	6
The Ould Lad26	6
I Need Gold31	5
Royal Palladium26	5
The Last Samuri26	5
Band Of Blood16	4
Broadway Buffalo24	4
Minella On Line18	4
Mosspark45	4
Son Of Suzie39	4
Tara Road18	4
Vivaldi Collonges31	4
Lower Hope Dandy101	3
Valseur Lido30	2
Vroum Vroum Mag54	2
Line D´Aois16	-2

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

ultima
HORSE	total
Ned Stark38	13
Carole´s Destrier24	11
Shutthefrontdoor120	8
Annacotty45	8
Living Next Door73	7
Knock A Hand22	6
Rocky Creek17	6
Sausalito Sunrise74	5
Gevrey Chambertin83	5

Andrisiggy that is a bit easier to read. Just give us your top 10 for every race and a small run down on the way you have ranked them.

I like the answer you got for this one

[andrisiggy]

Fair point RC. I will keep the lists shorter as I move through the rest of the cards.
I presume you are also keen on Ned Stark. I hope the weight of money going on him doesn't slow him down!

My rankings are based on looking at the trends about, using the racing post book, Paul Jones' book and also gaultstats which is really useful. Depending on the trend I will award 2 or 1 points, rarely 3 and see who comes out on top. This year I am taking points away for Beaten favourites and non completions last time out. I have also taken points away for Nicholls in chases and all trainers with a surname of williams as they are all on the cold list. I am contemplating adding points for skelton and fry as I think they are showing themselves to be pretty shrewd.

It is all a bit of a mixed bag of measures I guess - and even then I try and read everything in the festival to form a final opinion. I am not sure how much it helps- last year I got my 2 year old to pick 6 horses in a 10p lucky 63 ew. He won £250 which was more than I won on the day- just from picking colours!

For me it is all part of the build up to the festival- i love it

[Hoof]

Fair point RC. I will keep the lists shorter as I move through the rest of the cards.
I presume you are also keen on Ned Stark. I hope the weight of money going on him doesn't slow him down!

My rankings are based on looking at the trends about, using the racing post book, Paul Jones' book and also gaultstats which is really useful. Depending on the trend I will award 2 or 1 points, rarely 3 and see who comes out on top. This year I am taking points away for Beaten favourites and non completions last time out. I have also taken points away for Nicholls in chases and all trainers with a surname of williams as they are all on the cold list. I am contemplating adding points for skelton and fry as I think they are showing themselves to be pretty shrewd.

It is all a bit of a mixed bag of measures I guess - and even then I try and read everything in the festival to form a final opinion. I am not sure how much it helps- last year I got my 2 year old to pick 6 horses in a 10p lucky 63 ew. He won £250 which was more than I won on the day- just from picking colours!

For me it is all part of the build up to the festival- i love it

Ned Stark wins lads

Not slavish on trends - I think some of best odds are on horses not qualifying via 1/2 of the popular stats. Contrary is good.