2015 JLT Novices Chase 2.5 miles

[loveracing]

Bummer, he must be an unlikely runner though, and if he does run I don't think he's a 5/1 shot, 16's sounds more like it, he'd probably set the race up for something else, damaging Vautours chance in the process

It's a she/mare right with allowance?

[MrMcGoldrick]

It's a she/mare right with allowance?

Right, she, sorry, I still can't see her running in this so soon after France and in line with the trainer quote, even Willie isn't normally that contrary, bookies must be thinking along different lines though.

[Morning Glory]

I think MTOY had it right when he said she would upset vautour. Some bad vibes around Vautour in my opinion.

[Hoof]

JLT on ATR

[mayo]

Tony Keenan

This race has the standout novice bet in Valseur Lido. Vautour looks a bad favourite; past Festival winners are often overbet and his jumping has been poor on his last two runs - if he couldn't fence well in a three-runner race last time what will he do in a fuller field here? Ptit Zig can be opposed too. He comes here off a fall and has had plenty of racing this season while the Irish may just be a better crop.
The Flogas form looks the key and I expect Valseur Lido to reverse placing with Apache Stronghold. The Mullins horse is not quite so far clear of Apache Stronghold as his Drinmore win suggests but he appears a better horse as everything points to him needing the run last time; his form cycle (best off a recent run), paddock judge views and subsequent trainer comments. He is a big price at 8.0 though at really long odds Three Kingdoms is interesting up in trip.

[Mytentoryours]

Tony Keenan

This race has the standout novice bet in Valseur Lido. Vautour looks a bad favourite; past Festival winners are often overbet and his jumping has been poor on his last two runs - if he couldn't fence well in a three-runner race last time what will he do in a fuller field here? Ptit Zig can be opposed too. He comes here off a fall and has had plenty of racing this season while the Irish may just be a better crop.
The Flogas form looks the key and I expect Valseur Lido to reverse placing with Apache Stronghold. The Mullins horse is not quite so far clear of Apache Stronghold as his Drinmore win suggests but he appears a better horse as everything points to him needing the run last time; his form cycle (best off a recent run), paddock judge views and subsequent trainer comments. He is a big price at 8.0 though at really long odds Three Kingdoms is interesting up in trip.

Agree regarding VL. Wouldn't put anyone off AS though. They are definitely the two each way plays with VL the one for me. Vautour was asked up a couple of times by Ruby in his last race and put that extra stride in before the fence, which is how he all but fell the time before. I don't particularly fancy Ptit Zig even before his fall. His form with Josses Hill and Champagne West isn't as good as a lot of people are giving it credit for in my opinion.

[Karanja Kid]

Agree MTOY, having watched the reruns of VL and AS countless times I can see why opinions differ. I'm with AS because Trainer and jockey have always said he's much better on good ground. AS needs to win really well on good ground to re-enter their thoughts about being a future GC horse which they always had as their target, a clear round next week should go a long way to answering that for next year. As it stands today they felt it didn't stay against DP last time over 3 miles, but there was both the ground and DP being potentially terrific to consider.

[Mytentoryours]

Agree MTOY, having watched the reruns of VL and AS countless times I can see why opinions differ. I'm with AS because Trainer and jockey have always said he's much better on good ground. AS needs to win really well on good ground to re-enter their thoughts about being a future GC horse which they always had as their target, a clear round next week should go a long way to answering that for next year. As it stands today they felt it didn't stay against DP last time over 3 miles, but there was both the ground and DP being potentially terrific to consider.

Yes after the run against DP at Christmas I was tempted to take some 20s about AS for the RSA. On good ground he will stay 3m no bother. It was a combination of heavy ground and DP that made it look like he didn't stay.

[Karanja Kid]

Yep, we see it the same way. This is a race where I'll be forecasting them as they're tough to split based on form though I've backed AS to win on various anteposts.

[Mytentoryours]

Yep, we see it the same way. This is a race where I'll be forecasting them as they're tough to split based on form though I've backed AS to win on various anteposts.

Yes looks a good shout to me. I actually did a straight forecast in the Flogas so was cursing when VL couldn't get past. Agree it looks a good opportunity on this race.

[Old Vic]

[mayo]

Ian McClean

JLT Novices' Chase

I have a suspicion the Irish novice chasers are ahead of their British counterparts. That, allied with an Ascot fall last time, sees me go against Ptit Zig in this.

Sorting between the three main Irish protagonists is not so easy. Murmurs about Vautour have been underwhelming of late so at around 2/1 he is easy to resist. Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido are closely matched on Moriarty form where very little divided them in a driving finish.

Two things sway me towards Valseur Lido. His long absence (since his scintillating Grade 1 Drinmore win) meant he was undoubtedly in need of the run, and almost certainly has the more improvement. Secondly, Apache Stronghold was sloppy at times at his obstacles and while he (just) got away with it in Foxrock, he most certainly will not in the Cotswolds. Valseur Lido it is so.

Selection: Valseur Lido

[Yeehaa]

Geraghty jocked up on three kingdoms ?

AP still showing on him for Arkle.

[Morning Glory]