2015 Fred Winter Thread

[Liam301287]

You can rule out Hostile Fire 8 of the last 10 winners won in previous 25 days.

[Cashew King]

Mick Jazz out for the season.

[Liam301287]

I have narrowed it down to 5. Qualandro Unanimite I'll be your clown Souriiyan Zafayan. You all prob surprise by me picks. But 1 is Nicholls couple are low represensation. Few of them are low profiles and they all meet most of the stats. The only stat i couldnt find was a Age Khan horse any of you guys managed to find one by Age Khan cheers in advance.

[waywardlad]

You can rule out Hostile Fire 8 of the last 10 winners won in previous 25 days.

So what about the 2 out of 10 that didn't then ? That's a one in five chance, I believe HF is a bigger price than 5/1 ?

Stats point you in a certain direction, just don't take them as gospel.

[Liam301287]

Most of them are usually right Waywardlad some people still may think Hostile Fire may win. That was just the main stat i was looking at.

[mayo]

Nicholls - All Yours ?

Friend of Betfair, Paul Nicholls, has a fantastic record in this low-key handicap for juveniles with one win and four placed finishes since 2010. The selection looks his number one going into the race this year and I expect him to be a lot shorter on the day. A mark of 137 seriously underestimates this quirky yet power-packed juvenile based on his run behind the very talented Beltor in a Grade Two at Kempton.


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If using Beltor Arabian Revolution is the pick ?

[Lessey]

I'm sure I read somewhere Mayo that All yours is bypassing Cheltenham for Aintree so won't be running but I may be wrong.

The other of note in this race who I think has been overlooked and fits the Nicholls trend is Old Guard. Had a very up and down season when he opened with a good win beating a very good yard stick in Alan King's Karezak. Next time out he ran with the choke out all the way in a Grade 1 and subsequently never made it home in Heavy ground at Chepstow but put in a much better performance at Sandown when second to another of King's good novices in Pain au Chocolat when arguably the ground was softer than ideal and he still pulled too hard at the start.

Better ground and a guaranteed stronger pace in the Fred Winter looks sure to be up his street and I think a mark of 137 completely underestimates his potential

[Liam301287]

The one i went for is Unanimite the only stat dont meet didnt run in last 28 days

[Yeehaa]

Ferguson said: "Arabian Revolution has some very strong form to his name. He won at Kempton first time out, then was second at Ludlow behind Beltor, who is going for the Triumph Hurdle, before winning the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon.

"The horse has come on since then and we are hopeful that he will run a nice race."

[Captain Christy]

Ruby tipped Buiseness Sivola on Irish TV. 25/1.

[Old Vic]

Ruby tipped Buiseness Sivola on Irish TV. 25/1.

Not the most obvious but will be shorter if Ruby is riding. Form behind Prussian Eagle might give him a chance but had though PE improved. Any way 25/1 gets a

[Yeehaa]

Cooper jocked up on Thunder Zone
Geraghty rides Arabian Revolution.
Renwick on Starchitect.
Condon on Hostile Fire.
Presume AP on Box Office?

[Old Vic]

Nicholls one-two makes it three for the day

Willie Mullins' domination of day one at The Festival was almost matched on day two by his equivalent in Britain, Paul Nicholls.

Somerset-based Nicholls saddled his third winner of the afternoon - at combined odds of 1,429/1 - when the Nick Scholfield-ridden Qualando won the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, and, for good measure, stablemate Bouvreuil finished runner-up under Noel Fehily. The winner started at 25/1, while Nicholls also ran All Yours, who finished fifth under stable jockey Sam Twiston-Davies.

The winning trainer said: "They are three nice juveniles - Sam got into all sorts of trouble on All Yours, but the first two ran really well. I've always liked the winner, and he was dropped 2lb after his first run following a move from France, and I thought I'd take advantage of that. There's nothing between the three and they are all embryonic chasers.

"It was good to give Nick a winner - he's a big part of the team."

Scholfield was elated after riding his second Festival winner following a victory on Hunt Ball at the meeting three years ago. He said: "For the first four hurdles I was in top gear and had to just sit and let the race develop around me. I felt if I could keep in touch with the leaders he would stay well. He saw a bit of light and came to life.

"He passed one or two which probably gave him a bit of confidence and I knew he would stay on. He's going to be a two-and-a-half-mile or three-mile chaser one day - he's one for the future, not just for today."

McCain has high hopes for Starchitect

Donald McCain is hoping that Starchitect can come into his own over fences next season after finishing fourth in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

"He's going to get two and a half miles and jump a fence. He should be an exciting chaser," said McCain. "We've been quiet through the mid-winter and I think he'll go to Aintree or Punchestown.

"It was a good run today. We took him to Musselburgh as he needed to go up 5lb to get in here. But maybe that extra weight has cost us today."

4.40pm Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
£75,000 total prize fund. For 4yo, 2m 110y. Weights: highest weight 11st 10lb; inimum weight 10st. Penalty value 1st £42,712.50 2nd £16,027.50 3rd £8,025.00 4th £3,997.50 5th £2,010.00 6th £1,005.00

1) QUALANDO (FR) (Kathy Stuart) Paul Nicholls 4-11-00 Nick Scholfield 25/1
2) BOUVREUIL (FR) (Potentis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles) Paul Nicholls th4-11-02 Noel Fehily 14/1
3) THE SAINT JAMES (FR) (J P McManus) Jonjo O'Neill ht4-11-05 Paul Carberry 33/1
4) STARCHITECT (IRE) (Paul & Clare Rooney) Donald McCain b4-11-02 Wilson Renwick 16/1
5) ALL YOURS (FR) (Potensis Bloodstock Limited) Paul Nicholls ht4-11-06 Sam Twiston-Davies 11/1
6) ZARIB (IRE) (Notalottery) Dan Skelton 4-11-02 Harry Skelton
7) BOX OFFICE (FR) (J P McManus) Jonjo O'Neill 4-11-04 A P McCoy 13/2f
8) UNANIMITE (FR) (Simon Munir & Isaac Souede) David Pipe t4-11-03 Tom Scudamore
9) GWENCILY BERBAS (FR) (Barry Connell) Alan Fleming IRE 4-11-08 Adrian Heskin
10) BUISENESS SIVOLA (FR) (Simon Munir & Isaac Souede) Willie Mullins IRE 4-11-03 Ruby Walsh
11) SOURIYAN (FR) (The GD Partnership) Jamie Snowden 4-10-13 Micheal Nolan (3)
12) THE WALLACE LINE (IRE) (Diamond Racing Ltd) Tim Vaughan 4-11-06 Alan Johns
13) BARON ALCO (FR) (John Stone) Gary Moore 4-11-00 Jamie Moore
14) ARABIAN REVOLUTION (Bloomfields) John Ferguson b4-11-06 Barry Geraghty
15) VERAWAL (IRE) (Supreme Horse Racing Club) Willie Mullins IRE p4-11-00 Paul Townend
16) BEATABOUT THE BUSH (IRE) (S Howell) Henry Oliver 4-10-13 Adam Wedge
17) MR GALLIVANTER (IRE) (Ross Harmon) John Quinn 4-11-00 Dougie Costello
18) SEBASTIAN BEACH (IRE) (The Megsons) Jonjo O'Neill 4-10-12 Richie McLernon
19) HOSTILE FIRE (IRE) (Pat Sloan) Gordon Elliott IRE t4-11-00 Davy Condon
20) THUNDER ZONE (Gigginstown House Stud) Gordon Elliott IRE 4-11-04 Bryan Cooper
21) DAI BANDO (IRE) (Mrs M Gittins) Ross O'Sullivan IRE 4-11-06 Andrew McNamara
Fell) GOLDEN DOYEN (GER) (Merry Old Souls) Philip Hobbs 4-11-10 Richard Johnson

22 ran
Distances: 1½, 2¾, hd, nk, 1¼, nse, nk, ¾, 1¾, 2½, 10, 3¼, 7, 3¾, 5, 1¾, 9, 2¼, ½, 1
Breeder: S C E A Raymond Jean-Christian
Breeding: b g Lando (GER) - Qualite Controlee (FR) (Poliglote)
Tote Win £40.70 Place £6.80 £4.10 £5.30 £5.50 Exacta £481.40

Winning Trainer: PAUL NICHOLLS Date of birth: 17/05/62 Based: Heighes House, Manor Farm Stables, Ditcheat, Shepton Mallet, Somerset Background: Paul Nicholls has been training at Manor Farm Stables in Ditcheat, Somerset, since taking out a licence on November 1, 1991. He started out as a jump jockey and twice rode the winner of the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury, in 1986 and 1987. He partnered 119 winners between 1980 and 1989. He was assistant trainer to former Devon-based David Barons, who sent out Seagram to win the 1991 Grand National at Aintree during that time. Having strongly challenged Martin Pipe for the jump trainers' championship for several years, most notably when pushing his great rival right to the last day of the 2004/05 campaign, he claimed his first of eight titles in the 2005/06 season. Cheltenham Festival Wins (37): Coral Cup (2015 Aux Ptits Soins), Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (2010 Sanctuaire, 2015 Qualando), Ladbrokes World Hurdle (2009, 2010, 2011 & 2012 Big Buck's), CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase (2009 Chapoturgeon), JCB Triumph Hurdle (2008 Celestial Halo, 2011 Zarkandar), Racing Post Arkle Novices' Chase (1999 Flagship Uberalles, 2003 Azertyuiop), Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (1999 Call Equiname, 2004 Azertyuiop, 2008 & 2009 Master Minded, 2015 Dodging Bullets), Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup (1999 See More Business, 2007 & 2009 Kauto Star, 2008 Denman), CGA Foxhunter Chase (2004 Earthmover, 2005 Sleeping Night), Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (2004 St Pirran, 2007 Andreas), Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle (2004 Sporazene, 2006 Desert Quest, 2009 American Trilogy, 2014 Lac Fontana), Ryanair Chase (2005 Thisthatandtother, 2007 Taranis), Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (2006 Noland, 2011 Al Ferof), RSA Chase (2006 Star De Mohaison, 2007 Denman), Stan James Champion Hurdle (2012 Rock On Ruby), Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (2013 Salubrious) First Trainer to Saddle Six Winners on One Card: Saturday, January 21, 2006, at Wincanton Number of Winners (1992/03-2013/14): 20; 29; 28; 53; 56; 82; 110; 71; 83; 136; 152; 127; 152; 148*; 124*; 151* (first trainer to win more than £4 million in prize money in a season);155*;115*, 134*, 138*, 131, 118**Champion Trainer Wins this Season: 95

Winning Jockey: Nick Scholfield Born: June 25, 1989 Background: Scholfield was brought up riding ponies in his native Devon. He was a leading amateur and took the Gentleman Amateurs Title for the 2007/08 season with 20 victories. He turned professional immediately afterwards and was successful on his first ride as a paid jockey. His father, Philip, was British champion between the flags in 1988. Appointed second jockey to Paul Nicholls in November, 2013. First Ride and Winner: Lou Du Moulin Mas, Lane Fox Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase, Newbury, November 24, 2006. Cheltenham Festival Wins (2): CHAPS Restaurants Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase (2012 Hunt Ball), Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (2015 Qualando) First Grade One Win: Melodic Rendezvous, Tolworth Hurdle, Sandown Park, January 5, 2013 Wins (2006/07-2013/14): 6; 21; 21; 38; 42; 48; 66; 60 Wins This Season: 39