2015 Fred Winter Thread

[Lessey]

I think Nicholls also claimed that All Yours is missing cheltenham to go straight to Aintree

[Morning Glory]

Tony Martin mentioned Thunder Zone at Balbriggan.

Second to Kitten Rock at Gowran getting loads of weight.

Was 127 in Ireland before that run.

[Old Vic]

weights at lunchtime - first post should update

[Old Vic]

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Grade 3, £75,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 4.40pm, Wednesday, March 11, 2015, two miles and half a furlong. For juvenile four-year-olds only. Penalties: after February 22, a winner of a hurdle race 5lb. No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 10lb. Entries closed February 17 (70 entries), entries released February 19, weights revealed February 25. Six-day confirmation stage March 5, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 10. Maximum field of 22.

Horse	Age	Wgt	Owner	Trainer
DEVILMENT	4	11-10	Bloomfields	John Ferguson
PRUSSIAN EAGLE (IRE)	4	11-10	Michael L Keating	Charles O'Brien IRE
GOLDEN DOYEN (GER)	4	11-09	Merry Old Souls	Philip Hobbs
BIDOUREY (FR)	4	11-08	Brocade Racing	David Pipe
BIVOUAC (FR)	4	11-07	Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles	Nicky Henderson
GWENCILY BERBAS (FR)	4	11-07	Barry Connell	Alan Fleming IRE
DAI BANDO (IRE)	4	11-05	Mrs M Gittins	Ross O'Sullivan IRE
OFFICIEUX (FR)	4	11-05	Patricia Hunt	Noel Meade IRE
ARABIAN REVOLUTION	4	11-05	Bloomfields	John Ferguson
OLD GUARD	4	11-05	The Brooks, Kyle & Stewart Families	Paul Nicholls
ALL YOURS (FR)	4	11-05	Potensis Bloodstock Limited	Paul Nicholls
THE WALLACE LINE (IRE)	4	11-05	Diamond Racing Ltd	Tim Vaughan
THE SAINT JAMES (FR)	4	11-04	J P McManus	Jonjo O'Neill
CHATHAM HOUSE RULE	4	11-04	Gigginstown House Stud	Gordon Elliott IRE
VERCINGETORIX (IRE)	4	11-04	Simon Munir/Isaac Souede	Gordon Elliott IRE
GOODBYE DANCER (FR)	4	11-04	The Yes No Wait Sorries	Nigel Twiston-Davies
THUNDER ZONE	4	11-03	Gigginstown House Stud	Gordon Elliott IRE
BOX OFFICE (FR)	4	11-03	J P McManus	Jonjo O'Neill
BUISENESS SIVOLA (FR)	4	11-02	Simon Munir/Isaac Souede	Willie Mullins IRE
UNANIMITE (FR)	4	11-02	Simon Munir & Isaac Souede	David Pipe
BAIE DES ILES (FR)	4	11-02	Mrs Z Wentworth	Ross O'Sullivan IRE
JEANPASCAL (FR)	4	11-01	Dr Moira Hamlin	Venetia Williams
STARCHITECT (IRE)	4	11-01	Paul & Clare Rooney	Donald McCain
BOUVREUIL (FR)	4	11-01	Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles	Paul Nicholls
SOURIYAN (FR)	4	11-01	The GD Partnership	Jamie Snowden
ZARIB (IRE)	4	11-01	Notalotterry	Dan Skelton
NYANZA (GER)	4	11-00	Hunscote Stud	Alan King
MR GALLIVANTER (IRE)	4	10-13	Ross Harmon	John Quinn
QUALANDO (FR)	4	10-13	Kathy Stuart	Paul Nicholls
VERAWAL (IRE)	4	10-13	Supreme Horse Racing Club	Willie Mullins IRE
HOSTILE FIRE (IRE)	4	10-13	Mrs Pat Sloan	Gordon Elliott IRE
BARON ALCO (FR)	4	10-13	John Stone	Gary Moore
IBIS DU RHEU (FR)	4	10-13	John Hales	Paul Nicholls
BEATABOUT THE BUSH (IRE)	4	10-12	Ms S Howell	Henry Oliver
MICK JAZZ (FR)	4	10-12	Potensis Bloodstock Limited	Harry Fry
SEBASTIAN BEACH (IRE)	4	10-11	The Megsons	Jonjo O'Neill
ZAFAYAN (IRE)	4	10-11	Dr Ronan Lambe	Dermot Weld IRE
TARABIYN (IRE)	4	10-09	Supreme Horse Racing Club	Willie Mullins IRE
BLUE ATLANTIC (USA)	4	10-09	Roger Brookhouse	Warren Greatrex
NORSE LEGEND	4	10-09	Woodhaven Racing Syndicate	Chris Gordon
OFFICER DRIVEL (IRE)	4	10-08	Mark Benton	Jim Best
RUSSIAN BOLERO (GER)	4	10-08	BAA Management Ltd	David Bridgwater
I'LL BE YOUR CLOWN (IRE)	4	10-08	S G Keys	Andy Oliver IRE
VOSNE ROMANEE	4	10-08	Foxtrot NH Racing Partnership VI	Dr Richard Newland
LIL ROCKERFELLER (USA)	4	10-07	Davies Smith Govier & Brown	Neil King
SAINT LUCY	4	10-07	Lady Bamford	Jonjo O'Neill
BROOK (FR)	4	10-07	Pipe - Dreaming Ladies	David Pipe
GIMME FIVE	4	10-07	McNeill Family	Alan King
JALINGO (IRE)	4	10-07	Bloomfields	John Ferguson
SILVER DUKE (IRE)	4	10-07	Mac Asphalt Ltd	Jim Goldie
BISHOP WULSTAN (IRE)	4	10-06	Middleham Park Racing Bellman Trowbridge	Harry Whittington
STORM FORCE TEN	4	10-05	Robert Waley-Cohen	Andrew Balding
FULL DAY	4	10-05	Dan Gilbert	Brian Ellison
LUCKY JIM	4	10-05	DD Racing & Professor L P Hardwick	David Dennis
HIGH EXPECTATIONS (FR)	4	10-05	M Wasylocha	Gordon Elliott IRE

KABJOY (IRE)	4	10-04	Favourites Racing Syndicate	Jessica Harrington IRE
STERNRUBIN (GER)	4	10-02	Terry Warner	Philip Hobbs
RYEOLLIEAN	4	10-02	Bryan Fry	Gary Moore
SUPERB STORY (IRE)	4	10-02	A Holt, J Robinson, A Taylor & S Miller	Charlie Mann
CYCLOP (IRE)	4	10-02	DD Racing & Professor L P Hardwick	David Dennis
ROLLING DICE	4	10-02	Miss A Jones	Dominic Ffrench Davis
CAPE CASTER (IRE)	4	10-02	D P Barrie & D Redhead	Evan Williams
MIGHTY MISSILE (IRE)	4	10-01	Bolingbroke Howard BJO Duthie Mercer	Warren Greatrex
ALZAMMAAR (USA)	4	9-13	P A Deal & ROA Arkle	Warren Greatrex
TRIPLE CHIEF (IRE)	4	9-11	G Thompson	Chris Down
MAGIC MAGNOLIA (IRE)	4	9-11	Brian Rudman	Mark Gillard
TOP OF THE GLAS (IRE)	4	9-10	Market Avenue Racing Club Ltd	Brian Ellison

67 entries
16 Irish-trained

THE FOLLOWING 3 HORSES ARE NOT QUALIFIED: FREDERIC, NEW STREET, ROCK OF LEON

[Old Vic]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Fred Winter: &quot;Last year you wanted to be around No.35 to get in - Beat About The Bush on 10st12lbs. I&#39;d say 132 upwards will get in.&quot;</p>&mdash; Racing UK (@Racing_UK) <a href="https://twitter.com/Racing_UK/status/570567011710996480">February 25, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[mayo]

Lydia

However, after his straightforward Wincanton success, Zarib has got to see a cheap flop on the button in the Fred Winter and looks very dangerous for a horse who will surely improve for a sounder surface. He’s been intelligently campaigned by young trainer Dan Skelton, so take the widely available 12/1

[loveracing]

I've been watching all the money come in for Hostile Fite the last couple days and just had a phone call saying the connections have backed him.

[Old Vic]

I am going to try and go through all the handicaps today.

Trends

• Paul Nicholls has targeted this is recent seasons winning with Sanctuaire in 2010 and saddling the runner up for the last two seasons
• The Pipe runners should also be respected. David Pipe has 1 winner and 4 places from 11 runners
• Gordon Elliott, Gary Moore and Alan King trained runners should also be respected
• Willie Mullins 9 runners have all finished unplaced
• Fillies have won 3 of the last 6 renewals
• Fillies have won 4/10 of all renewals from an overall representation of about 10%
• 9 /10 winners were rated between 124 and 133
• 7/10 winners ran on the flat
• The top rated flat horse has won the race on 3 occasions and been runner up once
• Irish Bred horses have won 5 renewals and filled 6 places from 83 runners.
• French Breds are 4-13-70 and British Bred: 1-7-60
• 9/10 winners had a prep race less than 32 days beforehand
• 5/10 winners won last time out
• 8/10 were making their handicap debut
• Horses getting into the race by carrying a penalty have won on 2 occasions (50% strike rate)

http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-festival/featured_cheltenham_races.php?Fred-Winter-Juvenile-Handicap-Hurdle-Trends-2015-117

The Filly Trend

The filly trend is easy Alan Kings Nyanza is the only one that might get in. King hasnt won this but has filled 5 places from 17 runners. He is also 2 wins and 4 places from 12 in the Triumph over the decade giving him a combined stats for four year olds of 2 wins, 9 places from 29 runners.

Went off to France to run in the flat last week but will be on the shortlist if running. 25/1 NRNB with Betfair Sportsbook

The Flat Rating Trend

There are a few for the shortlist based on their flat rating. The David Pipe trained Unanimite was rated 94 on the flat and looks best in when comparing hurdle and flat rating of the runners. 20/1 is available with the NRNB books.

Pipe has a good record so that is a couple of trends boxes ticked,

The Dermot Weld trained Zafayan may struggle to make the cut but looks well in if flat form transferred to hurdles 129 versus 89.

I have added flat ratings for all runners to the first post on the thread.

The Official Rating Trend

With the cut off projected at 130 the 124-133 trend is likely to actally mean 130-133. Which gives us this sample. We have added bold to those horses where trainers have a good record and Starchitect because of earlier positive comments from Jason Maguire and Mccain.

<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>

121336	BAIE DES ILES (FR)	4	134	-	11-02	Ross O'Sullivan IRE	Mrs Z Wentworth
14P	JEANPASCAL (FR)	4	133	-	11-01	Venetia Williams	Dr Moira Hamlin
1122	STARCHITECT (IRE)	4	133	84	11-01	Donald McCain	Paul & Clare Rooney
392134	BOUVREUIL (FR)	4	133	-	11-01	Paul Nicholls	Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles
512	SOURIYAN (FR)	4	133	-	11-01	Jamie Snowden	The GD Partnership
131	ZARIB (IRE)	4	133	82	11-01	Dan Skelton	Notalotterry
1214	NYANZA (GER)	4	132	77	11-00	Alan King	Hunscote Stud
115	MR GALLIVANTER (IRE)	4	131	79	10-13	John Quinn	Ross Harmon
B3-421	QUALANDO (FR)	4	131	-	10-13	Paul Nicholls	Kathy Stuart
33336F	VERAWAL (IRE)	4	131	66	10-13	Willie Mullins IRE	Supreme Horse Racing Club
221	HOSTILE FIRE (IRE)	4	131	79	10-13	Gordon Elliott IRE	Mrs Pat Sloan
2134	BARON ALCO (FR)	4	131	-	10-13	Gary Moore	John Stone
21-64	IBIS DU RHEU (FR)	4	131	-	10-13	Paul Nicholls	John Hales
63611	BEATABOUT THE BUSH (IRE)	4	130	45	10-12	Henry Oliver	Ms S Howell
6232	MICK JAZZ (FR)	4	130	-	10-12	Harry Fry	Potensis Bloodstock Limited

There are a few fancied horses in here including Gordon Elliotts Hostile Fire.

The same connections landed a touch with Flaxen Flare in this race. Nyanza turns up here again and ticks another box, Paul Nicholls ( should we include those of his former pupils ?) and Gary Moore runners are also worth a second look. Mullins has never had a horse placed in this.

Betting Stats

The odds of winners are all over the shop Favourites have won 2 of 10 renewals, and been placed in another 4 giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Gault noted that in -
2014 Katgary in 2nd only one in the first 11 home under 16/1. Shortest priced animal in the first 14 home
2013 was 14/1.
2012 Two horses priced 10s and under finished in the first 6 in 2012.
2 in 2011, 3 in 2010.
That brings the total to 12 in 109 runnings. That's 12 out of the first 60 home.

What to do with that info ?

I think you have to look for an outsider and hope for the best !

Ill have another look closer to the race but here is my initial and personal ( i.e not the FJ) shortlist
<iframe width =550 height =280 src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kvyKVlAgdc6RwUMmuFo6D74F13167XvHISkBbFx02-Q/pubhtml?gid=1972390219&amp;single=true&amp;widget= true&amp;headers=false"></iframe>

Thoughts corrections and further suggestions welcome

[andrisiggy]

Think McCain is on the cold list at Cheltenham so I may avoid his. Starting to think king could have his best festival in a few years so nyanza interests me. Although German breds have struggled since well chief I think

[Old Vic]

Think McCain is on the cold list at Cheltenham so I may avoid his. Starting to think king could have his best festival in a few years so nyanza interests me. Although German breds have struggled since well chief I think

Has Alan King had a Cheltenham stable tour anywhere ...couldnt find any news on Nyanza apart from the trip to France. He skipped it with L Unique and went to Aintree a few years ago.

[Yeehaa]

I am pretty sure King said his horse will probably miss Cheltenham. Owned by a stud more interested in black type or summit.

elsewhere

Gwencily Berbas is set to line up in the Fred Winter instead of the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The Barry Connell-owned four-year-old was a winner at Auteuil in his homeland, prompting connections to give him Festival engagements, and he could not have been more impressive on his first start for trainer Alan Fleming in a Grade Two at Fairyhouse last weekend.

Connell and Fleming were waiting for the British handicapper's assessment of the performance before committing to a target and now he has been handed a mark of 139, he is set to go down the handicap route in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle on the Wednesday of Cheltenham.

Fleming said: " He'll go for the Fred Winter. I'm nearly 100 per cent sure."

Connell added: "He's been given a nice mark for the Fred Winter so that's where we're going to go."

[mayo]

Bidourey thoughts people ?

[Cashew King]

Bidourey thoughts people ?

It's entered in the imperial cup & sandown still soft/heavy so it could go there first & then bonus hunting but not sure it will get soft ground at cheltenham & the Fred winter comes on the 2nd day so not much rest if that is the plan. Personally I'm swaying towards Mick Jazz in this, right on the cut off for getting in but Potensis have 3 in the handicap above it, so reckon they could get it in if they wanted to.

[Liam301287]

Will take a look at this race tomorrow and a few hcps.

[Morning Glory]

Looks like there has been a move for Starchitect. Not mad about McCain at Cheltenham either. Not crazy about Weld at Cheltenham either but might have a look at Zafayan.