2015 Champion Chase

[mayo]

The Ryanair has cut up too and looks winnable without Dynaste.

Uuurghhhh..l

[Morning Glory]

The above came out a bit wrong. I meant to say "he may never be the same SDG after the he injury".

He jumped poorly in the home straight - nearly fell at second last when running loose.

[Grade1]

Moscow Flyer the last winner to fall and win in same season ?

No mention of it here ?

https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home/wednesday/seasons-holidays-queen-mother-champion-steeple-chase-abt-2m

Home > Wednesday 11th March (Old Course) >
Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase Abt 2m
Won’t be older than 9. If a ten year old or older is priced under 10/1, to be placed. Will have won that season and will have been first or second last time out or F or U. Has won over at least 2 miles 1 furlong. Has won at least a Grade 2 chase, is rated 160+ and had no more than 4 runs this season. Won't be wearing blinkers and won't be a mare. Will have won or been placed at the Festival before, a course winner or will never have been here before. Has not been beaten in this race before. Will have won 50% of completed NH starts and ran at least 7 times over fences. ran since Jan 1. Lay for a place all who are not previous Grade 2 chase winners. If good ground race to be run in about 3 mins 51 secs.

AGE Sizing Europe 2nd 2013, Big Zeb 3rd @ 13/2 2012, Moscow Flyer (win ’05) and Tuitchev 3rd ‘04 only horses aged 11 or over in last 18 years to have been placed. Moscow’s win at 11 first since from that age group since Skymas ’77. In the last 22 years, the winner's roll call reads aged 5 (1) 6 (2), 7(4), 8(7), 9(5), 10(2), 11(1). However apart from Moscow, no winner older than 9 since One Man '98. In the 14 races since One Man, 35 horses older than 9 tried (other than Moscow). Only 5 of those started at less than 10/1, all finished placed. Sizing Europe, Big Zeb twice each and Fota Island. Somersby was 10 last year and did finish second at 14s Sizing is now 13 yrs old, Somersby 11, Alderwood 11, Finians Rainbow 12.
Master Minded first five year old to win. Voy Por Ustedes, first six year old winner of this in the last 35 years. Then MM won as a six yr old. Only 13 six year olds have actually run in this race since ‘88. Petit Robin 3rd '09, '08 Fair Along 3rd. '05 Well Chief was 2nd to Moscow, '06 Kauto Star fell when 2/1 fav and '07 Voy won. Kauto Stone fell at the 1st 2013. Last year Hinterland ur when badly hampered.

Seven yr olds. 4 winners and 4 seconds from 23 runners in last 22 renewals. Module 3rd last year. Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuare (4th) 2013.

BETTING Three winning favourites in the last 8 including the last two. 2011 Sizing Europe 10s followed Big Zeb at 10s and Newmill's 16/1 success in ’06 as rare big price winners here. Before that Deep Sensation 11/1 in 1994 highest priced winner since at least 1983. Between ’91 and ’04 only three of the 50 that started bigger than 14/1 got placed. Mister McGoldrick was 3rd in ’06 at 50/1 and ’07 placed horses Dempsey 20s and River City 33s would negate the previous 13 yrs. Module at 20s 3rd 2014. This tends to have small fields. (Largest field ever was 13 in 1999)

FORM 28 of last 30 had won that season (exceptions Sizing Europe and Martha’s Son ’97 one outing - Fell). 26 from last 30 had been 1st or 2nd last time (Martha’s, Edredon Bleu 3rd, Voy unseated, Sizing Europe 3rd).

Only Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Sacre and Klairon Davis in past 22 had failed to win over at least 2 miles 2 furlongs earlier in career. Sire did win novice hurdle over 17.5 furlongs. Sprinter Sacre previously 2nd in an 20 furlong Ascot Novice Hurdle. Klairon Davis had fallen early in his two attempts at longer distances. 16 of last 25 had won over 2 and 1/2 miles (Not Master Minded).

All last 12 had won over at least 2m 1f. Hardly a shock.

Since ’95 Klairon Davis, Moscow Flyer (2), Newmill, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe have won for Irish trainers. Reasonable from 43 runners over 20 years. Sizing flying the flag best in 4th last year, sole representative in 2013 and 2nd. In 2012 the three Irish finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th. In 2011 the 4 Irish trained horses filled the first 4 places.

Tingle Creek/Queen Mother double. In last 21, Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded '09, Moscow Flyer '05, Flagship Uberalles '02, Viking Flagship '95. All Queen Mother favourites. 2012 Sizing Europe pipped on the run in by Finians Rainbow after the nonsense with the last fence. Dodging Bullets beat Somersby Tingle Creek Chase has produced at least one subsequent Festival winner from 11 of the last 14 runnings. 9 won here after running at Sandown. 2011 - Oiseau de Nuit won Grand Annual.

All bar Sizing of the last 20 winners had won more than half of their completed NH starts. He was 10 from 23 (I admit Newmill had only 9 wins from 20 runs before his triumph but you humour me every year).

Moscow Flyer 2003 and 2005, Royal Relief 1972 and 1974 are the only two to have regained crown. Moscow was 11yrs old and the 6/4 fav. Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe

Last 17 winners had all previously won at least a Grade 2 and had no more than 4 outings that season.

16 from last 17 all ran at least 7 times over fences (Sprinter and Finians Rainbow with 7 had the least, all the rest had more including Master Minded first time).
No mare has ever won this race. No blinkered/cheekpieces winner in last 16. Somersby, Sizing Europe cheekpieces last year.

CHELTENHAM FORM Since 1959 there have been 10 dual winners of this, four in the past twenty five years. Before Master Minded the last one was Viking Flagship ‘95. Last 9 before that to try have failed. All those four back to back winners started the second year as short priced favourite. No Grand Annual/Queen Mother double since Kababatic ’91. (Savello) Badsworth Boy's treble was completed in '85, he was a 10 yr old, had 4 opponents, started at 11/8f and strolled home (that is, after F Berry had allegedly wrestled Bobsline to the ground 3 out).

22 from last 30 won or placed at Festival before. Not Sire De Grugy, had never previously ran at the Festival but had been 2nd in a November G2 Novice Chase, (Sprinter Sacre Arkle winner, Finians Rainbow was 2nd in 2011 Arkle). Two of the other eight were course winners. Master Minded (first win) and Newmill had never been there before. Big Zeb fell in this in his only other visit to Cheltenham '09. However, in the past 30 yrs only Edredon Bleu in 2000 has improved on a placed effort one year to win it the next. Big Zeb F and Moscow UR early on in their unsuccessful years. Edredon started 7/2 2nd fav in 2000 Somersby, Module

28 from last 31 either course winners or over 2m2f. Not Sire.

The last 12 all ran since the turn of the year.

12 of last 13 rated at least 160 and had previously won a Grade 1 race. Sire was 169
Paul Nicholls - 4 winners and 5 placed from 24 runners since 1999. Mr Nicholls currently on a losing run of 77 with Festival chasers.

2014 Queen Mother Form. Hmmm. Sire De Grugy won Sandown Celebration G1? at 2/7. Somersby and Module wouldn't have had you jumping up at down with their subsequent form. Sizing Europe, Wishfull Thinking have won G2s over 2m 4 f. Special Tiara won a 2m G2 at Kempton on an excellent Geraghty ride.

All since 1978 either placed last time or F or U.
Last 13 winners of the Arkle to have lined up for the next years Queen Mother Champion Chase have been placed at least. Seven won, Sprinter Sacre the latest. Simonsig was injured.

2014 Arkle - Where is Western Warhorse? Champagne Fever 2nd and Dodging Bullets 4th both in the mix here. Champagne Fever being tried over a variety of trips. Dodging has won well the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House this season. His Festival form is 494 at prices of 20s, 12s and 6s. Will be shorter this year.Baily Green yet to win another race. The 2014 Arkle time was 3.47 two seconds faster than the QM the next day. The seniors carried 6lbs more last year, a change from what was always 3lbs. Sprinter Sacre and Captain Chris also outspeeded their seniors in their respective Arkle years with only 3lb less.

Queen Mother Times: Sire De Grugy 3.49, Sprinter Sacre 4.01 Finians Rainbow 3.52 Sizing Europe 3.54 Big Zeb 3 51, MM 2 4mins, MM1 3 56, Voy 3 53, Newmill 3 51, Moscow Flyer 3.54, Azer 3.54. The races are both run on Old Course.

PLACED HORSES - Going back to Lord Dorcet in 1998 all bar Dempsey and Petit Robin of the 27 placed horses since were already at least Grade 2 chase winners. Dempsey himself came here on the back of a facile Sandown Grade 3 success in February of that year. Petit Robin, Dempsey and Lord Dorcet had previously been placed in a Grade 1. 8 of The last 9 placed horses in this were all previous Grade 1 winners. Not Module.
BREEDING. 5 of past 6 winners under 8 yrs of age were French Bred. Have won 6 from last 14. Sire De Grugy is French. Sprinter Sacre is German Bred

[mayo]

Good stats G1 !

Donn
Hidden Cyclone was very good in the Tied Cottage Chase on Sunday at Punchestown. He was quickly into a lovely rhythm out in front for Andrew McNamara, and he was superb at just about all his fences. He hardly missed a beat. He was fluent at all his fences and, when he was meeting run a little wrong, like the third last fence, he shortened up nicely and popped efficiently.

By then he had all his rivals in trouble. He flew the second last fence and came clear on the run around the home turn. Then he popped the last and maintained his advantage over Bright New Dawn and Twinlight all the way to the line.

This was a performance of quality from Shark Hanlon’s horse. He was entitled to win on official ratings, but it was the manner and style of his victory that impressed. And the time, 0.19secs/furlong faster than Racing Post par.

Hidden Cyclone is a live Champion Chase prospect now. Second in the Ryanair Chase last season, he was probably just out-stayed by Dynaste that day, because nothing travelled better into the home straight than he did. Dropped back in trip to a stiff two miles and ridden aggressively – his trainer thinks that his absolute optimum is probably two and a quarter miles – could see him to maximum effect, and that is probably what they will do now in the Champion Chase.

He is 10 now, and 10-year-olds do not have a great record in the Champion Chase, but they do not have a bad record either (just two wins but just 28 representatives and 11 places in the last 17 years), and this year’s renewal is wide open. We know that Hidden Cyclone likes Cheltenham. In two runs there he has finished third in a Paddy Power Gold Cup off a handicap rating of 152, and second in that Ryanair Chase last March. Also, Shark Hanlon’s horses are in top form this season, unlike last term, when they seemed to underperform a little. He has had 20 winners already this season, which is one more than the total number of winners he had for last season and the previous season combined. As a consequence, it is more than possible that Hidden Cyclone will go to Cheltenham this year in better form than he was last year and, if that is the case, and competing over a more suitable trip, he could run a big race at a big price in the Champion Chase.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I think if HC is ridden to get to the front he could end up in a battle with CF, so they could set the race up for a finisher, enter Dodging Bullets. I think HC may struggle to actually lay up with CF, so may be forced to drop in, then it's a case of what gets past Champagne Fever, which also depends on what turns up, and in what sort of form, the plot thickens.

[mayo]

I think if HC is ridden to get to the front he could end up in a battle with CF, so they could set the race up for a finisher, enter Dodging Bullets. I think HC may struggle to actually lay up with CF, so may be forced to drop in, then it's a case of what gets past Champagne Fever, which also depends on what turns up, and in what sort of form, the plot thickens.

I have taken 10s Ew and NRNB with Boyles on Ryanair. Only Dynaste was better last year and won't be a double figure price if he runs.

[MrMcGoldrick]

I have taken 10s Ew and NRNB with Boyles on Ryanair. Only Dynaste was better last year and won't be a double figure price if he runs.

Only Dynaste was better in the Ryanair, which is where your're obviously hoping he runs, but the Champion chase is a completely different test, everything happens that bit quicker, that's not to say he won't win if he was to run here, which seems to be the choice for connections, this race is wide open now, but the jumping has to be slick and fast to win this.

[Morning Glory]

Good info there G1 had forgot about that site.

[Old Vic]

Timeform

Rarely has the post-race news differed so vastly from pre-race talking points than in the case of Mr Mole’s Game Spirit. Sticking strictly to the horses, Sire de Grugy left the race with even more questions to answer than there had been beforehand. He was already off the bridle when hitting four out and getting rid of Jamie Moore at the next. The chances are he wouldn’t have beaten Mr Mole (163+) and therefore he’s been pulled down slightly, to 170.

Winner Mr Mole was comfortable in the end and clearly has an engine worthy of championship races. His 163+ rating puts him firmly in the Champion Chase picture, more so than prices of 10/1 might imply if form were the overwhelming consideration. Still, there were obvious signs on Saturday, when he whipped round at the start and lost plenty of ground, that the quirky Mr Mole has been figured out rather than cured. In among all the commotion, it shouldn’t be underplayed how deft McCoy was in getting the best out of him in the circumstances.

[Morning Glory]

Sprinter was a bit weak on Betfair last night ....it can just be punters switching outings NRNB with the books but Henderson could stop trains in the last few months

[Yeehaa]

Mr Mole up to 165

Saturday’s Game Spirit Chase lost its principal player when reigning champion two-miler Sire de Grugy, back from his injury-enforced absence, departed at the third fence from home, writes John de Moraville.

It was too far out to gauge how the 172-rated favourite, who had also clouted the previous obstacle, would have fared. But the race did confirm that the quirky but hugely talented winner, Mr Mole, remains firmly on the upgrade.

Despite shying away from the tape and losing ten lengths at the start, this thirteen-length defeat of Castleford Chase winner Upsilon Bleu represents another career-best performance from Mr Mole, promoting him to a new mark of 165.

By adding Newbury’s Grade 2 feature to his victory in last month’s Sandown handicap, Mr Mole was emulating the double achieved by his stable’s former super-star Master Minded seven years ago.

Master Minded (who, incidentally, had earlier unseated in the same graduation chase that Mr Mole won at Exeter in December) went on to annex the 2008 Champion Chase by a blistering nineteen lengths. It’s hard to envisage Saturday’s winner basking in victory at Cheltenham come March 11th but ratings suggest that he has every chance of making the frame.

The top 2m performance of the season so far was recorded by Mr Mole’s much-improved stable-mate Dodging Bullets, whose 171 in Ascot’s Grade 1 Clarence House Chase last month was gained at the expense of the returning 2013 champion Sprinter Sacre (168).

Back from an even longer absence than Sire de Grugy, it would be unfair to expect Sprinter Sacre to ever match his record-breaking achievements (and rating of 188) of two years ago.

But with that Ascot race under his belt, the Henderson star is the bookmakers’ favourite to emulate the mighty Moscow Flyer (2003 and 2005) by regaining the 2m chase crown in four weeks’ time in what promises to be a captivating showdown.

[loveracing]

Mr Mole beat Brick Red by 2L in January, surely thats not good enough to win or even be placed in a QMCC.

Could he have improved by that much in 1 month to beat SDG & Uxi or were they just both way out of form?

Answers on a postcard please?

[iainmcf]

Even Nicholls wasnt even thinking CC for Mr Mole before Saturday and if I was him I still wudnt be thinking of it....no chance in my book!

[Mytentoryours]

Even Nicholls wasnt even thinking CC for Mr Mole before Saturday and if I was him I still wudnt be thinking of it....no chance in my book!

No Mr Mole won't be carrying a penny of my money either.

[loveracing]

CF would be a big danger if he runs and puts a clean round of jumping in.