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Any views on Mr Mole ?
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Mr Nicholls school for deliquent horses has done a good job on Dodging Bullets ( and Tidal Bay in his day) and you just wouldnt know. Had assumed Uxizandre was going to be APs Champion Chase horse but if Mr Mole ran well in game Spirit could see Uxi in Ryanair.Originally posted by Morning Glory View Post
Captain Conan anyone ? 33s and arguably just been unlucky at the Festival. Wrong race as a novice - broken pelvis last year but good form on track on other occasions.Comment
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wow !
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Current <a href="https://twitter.com/Timeform1948">@Timeform1948</a> ratings for Champion Chase contenders. <a href="http://t.co/nZ2TYQXMKB">pic.twitter.com/nZ2TYQXMKB</a></p>— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/557153376467570688">January 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
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and
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Best ever <a href="https://twitter.com/Timeform1948">@Timeform1948</a> ratings for Champion Chase contenders. <a href="http://t.co/FeboJ8yAVg">pic.twitter.com/FeboJ8yAVg</a></p>— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) <a href="https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/557153866597138432">January 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Champagne Fever getting cut ...looks like a typical pricewise selection.Comment
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Got that wrong. Hidden Cyclone is pricewise
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tomorrows Pricewise for Champion Chase
Hidden Cyclone
1pt each-way at 33-1 with bet365 and Betfred
(non-runner no bet)</p>— andrew smith (@festivalracing) <a href="https://twitter.com/festivalracing/status/557267770032009216">January 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Shouldn't be knocking the tipping of a 33/1 shot but no thank you here.Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
He was keen enough on Champagne Fever but thinks he and Al Ferof will be the same price on the day if they show,Comment
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Steve Mason (RPratings) still has sprinter as most likely winner of QMCC.
/y70KA9xnsk">pic.twitter.com/y70KA9xnsk</a></p>— Fat Jockey (@FatJockeyTips) <a href="https://twitter.com/FatJockeyTips/status/557280320589135872">January 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
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That is a properly researched piece from Mason. The correct thing is to compare to previous form on similar ground. As i said on the other thread I think a lot of those who said he wouldnt get up the hill in the Arkle are coming out of the woodwork to put him down.Comment
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Segull was a lot less dismiossive of Sprinter than he was on Sunday too.Originally posted by mayo View PostComment
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Seems to have had lots of problems and was rated a high of 161 when running last year. Would be like Newmill beating Kauto Star and Moscow Flyer if Captain Conan wins !Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
Surprised by Pricewise pick. I thought Champagne Fever was a cert. Must still be some chance he will line up in the Ryanair.
Hidden Cyclone might have place possibilities. His 2 mile form is 1113122F2 but most of those in Ireland where division is even weaker than it is here (without the big two or maybe three).Comment
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Been thinking more about Sprinter.
Sprinter is already a great horse - more WOW than any I have seen (apart maybe from Moscow in his last Melling) but there are very few of the big championship races that horses regain after losing.
Kauto did it in the Gold Cup. No other horse has. Hurricane Fly reclaimed the Champion Hurdle. Only Comedy of Errors had previously managed it. Moscow Flyer did it in the Champion Chase. Only Royal Relief had done it before (1972/74).
The bottom line is that the odds are stacked against these comebacks. Big Bucks couldnt do it Neither could Denman.
Id love to see it but the past tell us there is more likely to be a sentimental punt ending in failure.
So its time to BACK TO LAY.Comment
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sounds like Sire De Grugy will need the run at Newbury
Moore said on Wednesday: "Somebody said there is meant to be something wrong with him but I saw him gallop this morning and he looked good to me. I'd be lying if I said he's as fit as I'd like him at this stage but he worked this morning and he worked well. He'll improve for his work though and he did look like he needed the work this morning."
The Betfair Price Rush Chase, historically known as the Game Spirit, on February 7 is Sire De Grugy's target to return and speaking to At The Races, Moore added: "I'd be hopeful he was as good as he was. I would be very disappointed if he wasn't. I don't think he will go to Newbury as fit as he can be but it's not all about Newbury is it?"
Betway have Sire De Grugy as their 9-2 second favourite behind Sprinter Sacre, and, in an interview with the Champion Chase sponsors, Moore said: "We'll continue to step up his work between now and Newbury, with his last proper piece of work on the Tuesday before."Comment
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Lydia Hyslop ( part time psychologist and racing presenter)
Sprinter Sacre ultimately fluttered no hearts on his return at Ascot. This was good news in the case of his own, trainer Nicky Henderson reporting the all clear on that score, via his specialist vet Professor Celia Marr, shortly after his horse’s three-length defeat in the Sodexo Clarence House Chase.
For most horses, what he achieved in finishing second to Dodging Bullets would have been, if not a triumph, certainly an overwhelming positive. But Sprinter Sacre is not most horses. At his best, he was rated an extraordinary 188 over fences; on Saturday, he was the best part of 20lbs below that.
He jumped well, letting fly some good leaps that were vaguely reminiscent of his pomp, and it is worth remembering that jockey Barry Geraghty later said that he felt like the winner for much of the race.
But what confidence he had quickly dissipated on the turn for home when the winner moved up so readily on his outside; from then on, this great talent was merely held together on the run for home. Although Geraghty is known for his guru-like positivity, his analysis precisely matches the pictures.
“He felt great. He jumped brilliantly, travelled well; he just got tired,” he said. “You’d loved to have won, obviously, but he did everything bar win, really. He should improve a good bit for the race, so I’m delighted with how he was and everything about him…
“He got tired very quickly. I knew as soon as we started to turn in that I was treading water and a good jump at the second last kept him competitive, but I was well beaten going to the last.”
I don’t agree with the interpretation I’ve read that Sprinter Sacre found little off the bridle; I thought he kept on rather well, once switched, for a horse that was clearly being nursed home. However, I also don’t buy into the idea that he’ll return to his brilliant best in just under seven weeks’ time.
Henderson would not have had a horse as precious as this, who had suffered a problem as serious as this, that far off full fitness for his return. However, two paddock observers separately commented he lacked the condition on his neck that once marked him out as such an extraordinary physical specimen. Can this or his brilliance realistically be recovered so quickly?
Then there was the disconcerting news, delivered by Henderson as darkness fell at Ascot, that “there was some blood in his nose afterwards”.
“Obviously you’d prefer not to see that but he’s been scoped and… I don’t think it was significant as far as his performance was concerned today. It’s relevant but at this point, I hope, not seriously significant,” he said.
“You go through that extra bit of pressure in a race that you can’t do anywhere else… If you see it in their nostrils, you expect to find more [blood] than was evident [in this scope]… so the vets are filling me with confidence that it was nothing significant. But we’ll take note, of course we will, and keep everyone posted.”
The next day, Henderson reported a “perky” Sprinter Sacre to have eaten up and did not make much of the “small bleed” other than to say the horse will be “treated accordingly”. We must interpret his reaction as proportionate to the concern but, as Henderson himself acknowledged, it is not a positive.
Yet the performance of Dodging Bullets must not be lost amongst this. This is a horse who had delivered a career-best performance to win the Tingle Creek on his previous start and bettered that effort here.
As Noel Fehily, his rider on this occasion, said: “I think that was probably the best two-mile chase we’ve seen this year [meaning season] and that’s probably the best performance we’ve seen.”
Paul Nicholls, the winning trainer, stated after Sandown that Dodging Bullets had come of age, helped by greater physical maturity to withstand a tougher training regime, and the application of a tongue-tie.
His old frailties – a sense that he was in some way ‘soft’ and could not sustain his early-season form in the more important back-end contests – are probably best viewed in the past tense. This horse boasts the leading current form in this division and probably deserves to be favourite. And yet he is third best in the betting. If you fancy taking the 5/1 each way, I couldn’t argue with you.
Sprinter Sacre must also be considered in his current state rather than for his past greatness. That isn’t to say he won’t ever return to that brilliant best, but there is more than enough doubt that in my mind that he won’t be able to in time for March. So 11/4 looks decidedly short. He has a good chance of winning the Champion Chase, but no more than Dodging Bullets.
Fehily probably put it best when asked what he’d make of Sprinter Sacre’s run were he Geraghty. “You’d have to respect him going to Cheltenham again… Whether he’s the Sprinter Sacre of old, I’m not quite sure…” he said.
“Dodging Bullets is a very good horse now and I think he’s improved from last year… Sprinter Sacre? Maybe he isn’t the horse he was, but you’d have thought, taking on fit horses today, it’s still a very good run.”
When pressed, Geraghty’s words also betrayed this feeling and students of body language will have noted how he broke eye contact when asked how Sprinter Sacre’s current form compared with his peak.
“He gave a good feel,” he said. “His jumping will get slicker, he’ll be better for match practice, fitness, everything, so I’d be hopeful we’d narrow the gap come March.” The key words there are surely “narrow the gap”; the Sprinter Sacre of old would eat that horse for breakfast and go back for the jockey.
Psychologist
Of the also-rans, aggressive front-running tactics, even over a course and distance he likes, were of no use to Somersby, who put in an ignorant round of jumping for no good reason. He’ll probably run well in the Champion Chase anyway, just because he can.
Trainer Willie Mullins wanted to find out whether Twinlight is good enough and he found out: no, he isn’t. However, as his rider Ruby Walsh reasoned on the morning of the race, defeat for Sprinter Sacre must make it more likely that Champagne Fever runs here rather than in the Ryanair.
Walsh feels that horse was already beaten by Don Cossack when falling at the final fence in last Thursday’s Grade Two Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles but also that Champagne Fever never travelled or jumped as well as he had in the King George.
His conclusion is that the horse is only at his best when fresh and his Festival form means you can’t discount him as a Champion Chase player.
Another contender, Sire De Grugy, is yet to play his cards this season due to what is being increasingly characterised as a minor setback treated cautiously by Gary Moore.
The trainer was at Ascot to witness Dodging Bullets deliver a performance in the same ballpark as those his stable star produced all last season and he looked the opposite of downcast afterwards.
Since then, however, the major mover in the ante-post market for this race has been Hidden Cyclone after Pricewise of the Racing Post tipped last year’s Ryanair runner-up in his ante-post column.Last edited by Sprinter; 21 January 2015, 04:04 PM.Comment
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Cheltenham Postcast: Tom Segal <a href="https://twitter.com/DavidJenningsRP">@DavidJenningsRP</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Nickyw28">@Nickyw28</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/BoyleSportsLG">@BoyleSportsLG</a> look ahead to the Champion Chase <a href="https://t.co/mPEz3ZqgPs">https://t.co/mPEz3ZqgPs</a></p>— Racing Post TV (@RP_TV) <a href="https://twitter.com/RP_TV/status/557935409196695552">January 21, 2015</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://sports.betway.com/?s=bw35082&a=1274162141691126&mid=20374" title="Betway Horse Racing UK EN £ banner"><img src="http://www.betwaypartners.com/affiliate_media/18842e0003d69c3.jpg?fid=21251&si=37491&ai=5235228" alt="Betway Horse Racing UK EN £ banner" /></a>Last edited by Lester; 22 January 2015, 10:52 AM.Comment
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