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"We're looking at the Red Mills for Faugheen," Mullins said on At The Races. "I think there's one other contest left in England but we'll just keep all our options open. The horse is in good form.
"We'll probably have a chat with Ruby [Walsh] in the next day or so to see if he needs more experience, but at the moment I'm very happy with him."
Last edited by Old Vic; 4 February 2015, 07:35 PM.
Irving will attempt to throw his hat back into the ring for the Stan James Champion Hurdle when he runs at Wincanton on Saturday week in the Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle.
A smart novice last term, he was sent off joint-favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle but could only finish ninth.
He redeemed his reputation by becoming Paul Nicholls' 100th Grade One winner in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle but was found to be suffering from an abscess in his foot when he disappointed behind Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
"He's ready to go again. He's over all his issues now," said Dan Downie, racing manager for the owners, Axom syndicate.
"Wincanton, a week on Saturday in the Kingwell, will tell us an awful lot.
"If it all goes well it will then be all systems go for the Champion Hurdle."
Irving's price for the Champion Hurdle ranges from 25-1 to 40-1 with the sponsors.
Hi OV I mentioned a while back that I'd placed an ew double on Irving and Sgt Reckless, a couple of days later one of the pundits on Bet nation put him up as his ew pick, it seemed too big a price to me for the Fighting fifth winner to be 50/1, given the range of doubts about so many of the others.
Hi OV I mentioned a while back that I'd placed an ew double on Irving and Sgt Reckless, a couple of days later one of the pundits on Bet nation put him up as his ew pick, it seemed too big a price to me for the Fighting fifth winner to be 50/1, given the range of doubts about so many of the others.
I did remember ( just calling you out really ).
What is really good about that bet part from the prices is that it looks like you will get a run for your money...
What is really good about that bet part from the prices is that it looks like you will get a run for your money...
Haha, thanks for that.
I hope they both run, I usually try to get decent prices for several bets on the run up to the fez based on the horses that are unlikely to turn up for certain races that are ahead in the betting of ones that almost certainly will, this then makes the bet look much better when the doubtful horses are taken out. The obvious one for me for weeks has been Sgt Reckless, that race always looked destined to cut up badly and I had a similar feel about this one, will have to see how he runs in the Kingwell, if he was to win that then the current 40/1 will be a distant memory. I'll be looking for more of those double type bets too, I got a few more quid on Faugheen when he was offered by 365 to win at Kempton then the Champion hdle at 3/1, he was 7/4 at the time, I would expect Irving to be around 66/1 to do the Kingwell/Champ double, then 10/1 after the race if he won well, time to lay.
Has had a run in the last 50 days. Has been placed at least at a previous Festival or hasn't been there before. Won last time out and over a trip not more than 2m 1f. Has won a Graded race this season, either on the flat or over jumps. Won’t have had last run in a handicap. Has not finished unplaced in any run this season. Was favourite or second favourite on previous run. Will have a total racing record of at least 10 runs with at least 5 wins. Will have run between 9 and 25 times over hurdles. Bula winner overdue to double up. Could be any price. Has previously won at least a G2. Not blinkered unless placed in previous Festival G1. Tiger Roll and Irving value for a place. Fly goes off too big a price.
AGE - 5 yr olds. 2104 Our Conor 5s tragically killed, Petit Zig 6th at 28s 2013 Countrywide Flame 3rd (16s) Balder Success (UR). 2012 Zarkandar (9/1) 5th, Brampour 7th. Mille Chief finished last in 2011. In 2010 they finished 3rd and 5th. In '09 5 yr olds finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th (all 16s and below). In '08 Katchit won, Punjabi was 3rd, the only two in the field. Between ‘02 and ‘07, 14 of that age group ran and 2 were placed (‘07 Afsoun, ‘02 Bilboa). Only 2 of the 14 were returned below 14s and neither were placed (Detroit City 6/4 fav and Essex 9s). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds.
To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Since then 6 of the 19 to try, have been placed. All of those finished in the first 4 in the previous year's Triumph (Tiger Roll and Calipto only qualifiers). Since Detroit City '06, the winner of the Triumph has ran 6 times in the following year's Champion Hurdle finishing 1/2/3/5/3/F. (Tiger Roll) The 5th was Zarkandar when P Nicholls was quoted post race as saying he 'wasn't right'.
Katchit and Persian War '68 only two Triumph winners to win this the following year. See You Then was only second in the Triumph '84.
Last years Triumph form. Not great. Of the first 10 ten home only Tiger Roll has won a hurdle race this season and that was against his age group. Beat Calipto giving 8lbs
Katchit in 2008, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace are the only winners of Festival novice hurdles since 1984 to have returned to Cheltenham and won any hurdle race the following year, all in the Champion Hurdle. Faugheen, Tiger Roll.
Since 1992, 8 novices competed in this. None of them were five year olds. Ex Flat runners Royal Gait, Alderbrook and Make A Stand all won, Rhinestone Cowboy was 3rd, Ashley Park and Self Defense 4th. (None ran in last six years).
Hurricane Fly was the first since Rooster Booster winner ‘03 to win at aged 9 yrs. One before that since Royal Gait in 1992. In the last 13 renewals, three eight year olds and two nine years old have won. Only 4 winners older than 8 since 1951.
Sea Pigeon '81, last 11 yr old to win Champion Hurdle. One before that was Hatton's Grace '51. Both also won it as 10yr olds.
REGAINING CROWN AGAIN? Hurricane Fly and Comedy Of Errors in 1975 only ones to ever regain. The Fly has only failed to win 4 races in total in GB and Ire. (Name the 8 horses who have finished in front of the Fly in his 29 hurdle races? Answer at foot of page). Currently has won 22 G1s, three this season beating the current champion each time. Up with the greatest 2 mile hurdlers there have ever been, if not the best. A great champion and very very often, a big price returned for his wins. Always drifts on the day, punters don't really like him. I luv him. No horse has ever regained this title twice. Who says he can't do it?
Since 1990 (and unlike the Gold Cup), 8 winners of this had been beaten in the previous year's renewal. The New One, Hurricane Fly
TRAINERS Irish 10 winners from the last 16. Jointly with the Surpreme as their current best performing race in the Festival. Rock On Ruby, Punjabi, Binocular, Katchit, Hors La Loi and Rooster Booster since ’97 have won for the home team. Before Hurricane Fly nothing Irish placed in years '08 - '10.
M/D Pipe - two winners and a two thirds from their 8 runners that started under 16/1 (‘08 Osana 2nd at 9/2, but stuffed in '09 at 13/2). Nothing good enough to compete last four years. No Northern trained winner for 33 years. N Henderson and Peter Easterby are current record holders with 5 wins each.
BETFAIR HURDLE/TOTE GOLD TROPHY Make A Stand only winner in last 26 to have its last race before Cheltenham in a handicap. Make A Stand joins Persian '68 as the only winners of both in the same season. Persian War then won the second of his three Ch Hurdles in '69. Last Tote Gold Trophy winner to run in this 13 months later was '03 Copeland 25/1 allegedly 'every chance when fell 3 out' in Rooster's year. I must have been watching a different race. In '94 Flakey Dove finished 3rd at Newbury then won here. betfair winner
INTERNATIONAL/BULA HURDLE Rooster Booster ’03 first Bula/Champion Hurdle double since Comedy Of Errors ’74. Since 1987 18 winners of the 'Bula' have attempted the double. Apart from Rooster, Valiramix probably was going to win here before tragedy happened. 4 have finished 2nd (including three of the last four), one was third, one fell and the rest were unplaced (including The New One last year, unlucky). Rooster is the only one of the 18 who had won at the Festival in the previous year. The New One
Supreme Novices Form ‘14. Not quite the vintage of 2013. Only Vaniteux, Garde La Victiore and Irving are entered. Vautour won 4 runner G1 over 2m 4 at Punchestown, Josses Hill beat Sgt Reckless G2 Aintree 2 miles, all now chasing. Sgt Reckless then 13l behind Faugheen G1 Punchestown 2 miles. Quote from W Mullins 'Vautour failed a late fitness test so we popped this fellow in' Garde La Victoire bt Vaniteux (giving 3lb) 1.5 lengths in the Greatwood. Garde since finished 5th in Ascot's Ladbroke off 153. Vaniteux (getting 8lbs), hacked over by The New One in the G2 International. Irving (9th in Supreme) fell at Wincanton where he may have beaten Purple Bay. He then won the Fighting Fifth before disappointing again behind Faugheen and Purple Bay in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
Timed in 3 mins 46 secs in goodish ground, the 2014 Supreme was run in one second slower time than the seniors 3 hrs later. Novices carry 3lb less. Rock On Ruby's 3 mins 50 in 2012 Champion was 6 seconds faster than the Fly in 2013 and 2 seconds faster than the Fly in 2011. Last year was the the fastest of the last eight Champion Hurdles. Faugheen 3.46 at Kempton, Fly 3.57 for Irish Champion 2015.
Bula '71 only horse ever to do Supreme/Champion double in consecutive years. Browne's Gazette ... (ok, stop it now), Hors La Loi and Brave Inca did win both but not in consecutive years. Since '84, only 10 have tried and only the Gazette, Like A Butterfly and Go Native (all unplaced) came to the Champion Hurdle on the back of G1 success. Not happening in 2015.
On Irish Champion Hurdle day 2014 it was noted that the maiden hurdle on the card won by Quickpick Vic was run in a time 6 secs faster than the Champion itself won by the Fly. This was the first year in four that the maiden hurdle was faster.
Last years Champion Hurdle. Good race. Jezki, The New One and Hurricane Fly return. Jezki, better on good ground, beat the Fly convincingly at Punchestown. The Fly has beaten him twice this season in the Morgiana and Punchestown. The New One won the Aintree Hurdle and 4 more lesser contests this season As strong a form race as as 2011 Champion Hurdle. 4 of the last 9 winners finished 3rd in previous year's race The New One 5 didnt
Katchit, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace are the only winners of Festival novice hurdles since 1984 to have returned to Cheltenham and won any hurdle race the following year. Faugheen, Tiger Roll, Hawk High
Last years Neptune Novice Hurdle. Faugheen has taken all in front of him this season and last years Neptune was full of stayers. He did win by 4 1/2 lengths. Only horses behind to win decent hurdles have been Lieutenant Colonel (Hattons Grace, Woodies DIY) and Cole Harden (G2 Wetherby). It is arguable that the Neptune is a better guide than the Supreme to Champion Hurdle contenders. In the last 20 years Hardy Eustace and Istabraq doubled up. Danoli, French Holly, Pedlars Cross and The New One all placed the next year. Rock On Ruby won the 2 mile championship the year after his sh hd defeat in the Neptune.
Best form races Irish Champion (Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace Istabraq and Theatreworld, Hurricane Fly) (Hurricane Fly beat Jezki?) Hard to believe but the Fly did exactly 4 mins 5.1 secs in both the 2012 and 2013 Irish Champion Hurdles. Some clock in Ruby's head. Also he won 2014 race in 3 mins 53, 12 seconds faster and nearly as fast as the first win in 2010. Not bad.
Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton has a reasonable record. Kribensis '90, Alderbrook '95 won both and Punjabi was third in '09 before Cheltenham. Of the last 12 winners of the Kingwell, 10 went onto the Champion Hurdle. Hors la Loi '02 and Katchit both won, 3 others were placed. Mille Chief last home in 2011, Zarkandar 4th 2013, Melodic Rendezvous 7th 2014 winner
Only Kribensis ’90 of the last 23 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners was able to complete the Champion double. Faugheen Up to the introduction of the WBX Million Bonus in '08 it was true to say that anything involved in the Fighting Fifth/Kempton Hurdles had little chance here. The Fighting Fifth now tends to attract a stronger line up. Irving, Arctic Fire In the past 7 years something placed here featured at Newcastle. 3 winners and 4 placed. My Tent or Yours 2nd last year, Countrywide Flame 3rd 2013.
All bar Rock On Ruby of the last 18 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January- 44 days). All bar Rock On of the last 20 and 28 from last 32 winners all ran since Jan 1. Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle. Faugheen. Even last year N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton to 'get the freshness off him'. He knows his stats.
18 of last 25 previous course winners. Not Jezki, Rock On Ruby, not Binocular (had been 2nd in Supreme Novice and Ch Hurdle), Punjabi (had been 3rd in '08 Champion), Sublimity (4th in a Supreme Novice), Make A Stand (had been beaten in a h'cap). Both Royal Gait and Alderbrook were novices and had never been here before but were both Group 2 Flat winners. Hurricane Fly also not been here before his first win. Came here on the back of beating Solwhit in 4 successive G1s. Wouldn't get up the hill here, if I recall right.
No Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner has ever been placed in a Champion Hurdle. Not relevant this year.
17 of last 23 were 1st or 2nd at a previous Festival. 10 from last 17 were previous Festival winners. (Fly, Istabraq three times, Hardy Eustace twice, Rooster Booster, Brave Inca, Hors La Loi and Katchit).
25 of last 31 won on most recent start, exceptions being Celtic Shot ’88, 2nd in an Agfa Hurdle, Granville Again ’93, 3rd in a Christmas Hurdle, Hardy Eustace ‘04 2nd in a Red Mills, Punjabi 3rd in a Kingwell, Rock On Ruby 2nd in Xmas Hurdle Jezki last in the 2014 AIG. All the wins were over 2m or 2m1f.
23 from last 26 were favourite or second favourite on last run.
All bar Jezki, Rock On Ruby and Hardy Eustace of the last 18 winners had run at least 18 times (Flat and Jumps combined) and had won at least 6 times (includes Sublimity). Jezki was 14 and 9, Rock On was 10 and 6, Hardy was 15 and 5 in ‘04. Hurricane Fly was 21 and 11 in 2011, Binocular was 18 and 11 in 2010.
16 from last 18 (not Rock On Ruby or Sublimity) had run between 9 and 25 times over hurdles.
14 of last 18 had previously won a Grade I hurdle. Rock On Ruby short head 2nd in a Neptune. Rooster Booster came here from winning the Bula G2, Make A Stand from the G3 Tote Gold Trophy. 15 from the last 18 had won a Grade I or 2 Hurdle that season. Sublimity broke both these stats but was a listed Flat winner.
Since 1984 only 6 winners were unplaced in any completed run that season. (Binocular 5th in a Fighting Fifth). Only Jezki, Punjabi and Binocular of last 14 unplaced in any of previous 2 runs (latter two in Kempton Xmas Hurdle, Punjabi fell when challenging).
HEADGEAR - Blinkered runners in last 12 races - 3 wins (Hardy Eustace, great rides from C O'Dwyer, Jezki never in blinkers but straight to first time hood) and 4 placed from 32. Rock On Ruby won without blinkers but wore them for the first time when second to the Fly in 2013.
Record of previous years winner P11PR2132469324. Jezki
BREEDING - 3 mares have won this in 88 years. Annie Power unlikely
PRICE 18 of last 22 winners found in first five in the market. Not Sublimity, Hardy Eustace ‘04, Punjabi or Binocular. You would expect that.
And must include this from Gault - a decent bloke
This year I am asking for a small donation to the Cancer Research charity. I know of at least 4 friends who are currently fighting the disease in its different forms. Good people. Please take a couple of minutes before delving into Gaultstats and click on my Just Giving Page. I am trying to equal last years figure. Thanks again. https://www.justgiving.com/Gaultstats2015
"He came out of the race really well. Because he made a mistake at the last AP (Tony McCoy) didn't give him a hard race," Harrington told At The Races.
"He had a week off, no saddle on him and now he's back cantering away and is in great order.
"He likes better ground and Cheltenham is a stiffer track than Leopardstown and that's what he likes.
"We'll just train him the same way we did last year.
"We went into the Champion Hurdle last year, finishing second and fourth in the two trial races at Leopardstown and we beat them at Cheltenham, so we'll see what happens."
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Faugheen will head straight to <a href="https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces">@CheltenhamRaces</a> for the Champion Hurdle after Willie Mullins decided against a run <a href="https://twitter.com/gowranpark">@gowranpark</a> this weekend.</p>— PA Stables (@PA_Stables) <a href="https://twitter.com/PA_Stables/status/565139999201714176">February 10, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Sorry if this is not correct thread for this comment but has this ever happened before, the defending champs of the big 4 races at Chelt havent won a race between them going into the festival, what odds wud have been given on that happening!
Sorry if this is not correct thread for this comment but has this ever happened before, the defending champs of the big 4 races at Chelt havent won a race between them going into the festival, what odds wud have been given on that happening!
Good Spot Iain
Jezki - last win at Punchestown
SDG - last win at Sandown
MOT - last win in WH
LW - last win in GC
Faugheen straight to Cheltenham according to the Mullins camp, they're happy that he's 100% and has done enough, so no Red Mills trial run. Analifet and/or Abbyssial entered though so Mullins could still be represented, they also say the AP is still on course for the fez, all from atr.
I think that Faugheen is the one Mullins horse on day 1 that has to be taken on.On the back of a long lay off its got to take on Jezki, Hurricane and The New One, all horses with proven form at this level, if hes up to it fair play to the horse but I have my doubts.
I think that Faugheen is the one Mullins horse on day 1 that has to be taken on.On the back of a long lay off its got to take on Jezki, Hurricane and The New One, all horses with proven form at this level, if hes up to it fair play to the horse but I have my doubts.
I take your point but he won the Neptune on the back of roughly the same lay off (admittedly better horses here). I guess his only weakness would be his jumping but he's no worse than Jezki or TNO. I think Ruby will bounce him out and make it. He along with Don Poli and UDS are the three I won't be taking on at Cheltenham.
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