2015 Champion Hurdle

[Old Vic]

Few bits for ascot preview

http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Cheltenham-Preview-Reports-2015-Ascot-357

BO: Reckons Ruby Walsh will definitely ride Faugheen, and will leave The Fly. Kitten Rock winner in Ireland today has had support for the Champion Hurdle

AC/PN: Nicholls & Coleman big Faugheen fans too, Nicholls can't touch The New One.

BO : When panel asked for any big priced choices Barry goes back to Kitten Rock again.

[Old Vic]

Quoted on his website, Nicholls said: "It was disappointing to see Irving put in his place by Blue Heron in the Kingwell Hurdle. It looked as if he got a bit tired in the ground and strictly on that performance it would make no sense to take him to Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle. First though, I will be talking to his owners before making a decision."

[Hoof]

WPM

Faugheen: He’s doing everything right. I looked at him, I looked at Vautour. To have a potential Champion Hurdler is huge for the yard. We thought Vautour was a horse who could win the Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day but we weren’t as sure about that for Faugheen. I can’t find a reason why he won’t run well [in the Champion Hurdle]. I asked Ruby if he needed another race after Kempton and he said ‘No’ and I was guided by that.

Hurricane Fly: It can be done at 11. People say he doesn’t run well at Cheltenham but I’m not so sure – he’s run there four times, won twice and I think I had two good excuses for the other times. I felt on his last two runs last season that he wasn’t sparking the way the way he can spark. He wasn’t sparking not enough not to run him, but he wasn’t quite there. So far this year he hasn’t shown any of those signs – and he will tell you all right. He’s very clear in what he’s telling us and so far it’s very good. He was quite tired after the Irish Champion for a week, when it’s usually only a day or two. He went back in himself, but since then he has been as good as ever. If he can do it, it would be my dream result of the Festival

Arctic Fire: He's the one (in the Champion) who is improving all the time. I'm not discounting him. I still haven't got the best out of him yet. I think he's one that even if he doesn't win the Champion, he's going to win a really big race over hurdles.

[mayo]

More on the other thread

Faugheen: "He is doing everything right. Nigel Twiston-Davies has questioned what Faugheen has beaten and I am going to side with him on that for the time being! I thought Faugheen might go chasing this season but, when we analysed everything and looked at the fact that he hadn't been beaten, everyone was keener for him to go back hurdling and Vautour to go chasing. To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle. We thought Vautour could possibly win an Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day and we weren't as sure about Faugheen doing that. I did not want to travel to England again for a prep run and I didn't want to take on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion. We prepared Faugheen for the Red Mills Trial but, after a good discussion with Ruby, we felt he didn't need any more experience. We looked up the stats and have seen plenty of horses that have gone straight from Kempton to Cheltenham without a run. I think people look too much into stats, especially ones only going back 10 years or so. I prefer to look back 25 or 30 years."

[Moscow]

Not sure about that Willie. The key bit in all that was that he didn't want to run against the fly.

[loveracing]

More on the other thread

Faugheen: "He is doing everything right. Nigel Twiston-Davies has questioned what Faugheen has beaten and I am going to side with him on that for the time being! I thought Faugheen might go chasing this season but, when we analysed everything and looked at the fact that he hadn't been beaten, everyone was keener for him to go back hurdling and Vautour to go chasing. To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle. We thought Vautour could possibly win an Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day and we weren't as sure about Faugheen doing that. I did not want to travel to England again for a prep run and I didn't want to take on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion. We prepared Faugheen for the Red Mills Trial but, after a good discussion with Ruby, we felt he didn't need any more experience. We looked up the stats and have seen plenty of horses that have gone straight from Kempton to Cheltenham without a run. I think people look too much into stats, especially ones only going back 10 years or so. I prefer to look back 25 or 30 years."

I spoke to someone today who reckons spoke to connections of NTD and they say beating Faugheen is a tough ask but will give it a shot.

[Old Vic]

More on the other thread

Faugheen: "He is doing everything right. Nigel Twiston-Davies has questioned what Faugheen has beaten and I am going to side with him on that for the time being! I thought Faugheen might go chasing this season but, when we analysed everything and looked at the fact that he hadn't been beaten, everyone was keener for him to go back hurdling and Vautour to go chasing. To have a potential champion hurdler in the yard is huge, rather than a horse going for the Arkle. We thought Vautour could possibly win an Arkle and possibly be a Gold Cup horse one day and we weren't as sure about Faugheen doing that. I did not want to travel to England again for a prep run and I didn't want to take on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion. We prepared Faugheen for the Red Mills Trial but, after a good discussion with Ruby, we felt he didn't need any more experience. We looked up the stats and have seen plenty of horses that have gone straight from Kempton to Cheltenham without a run. I think people look too much into stats, especially ones only going back 10 years or so. I prefer to look back 25 or 30 years."

stats Like these



Only Kribensis ’90 of the last 23 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners was able to complete the Champion double.

All bar Rock On Ruby of the last 18 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January- 44 days).

All bar Rock On of the last 20 and 28 from last 32 winners all ran since Jan 1.

Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle.

Even last year N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton

[mayo]

Paddy Power haven't taken a cent on Ruby riding the Fly.

If Faugheen loses Mullins is going to have those numbers shoved in his face. I suppose advantage of being fresh is that they can take in Aintree and Punchestiwn now.

[Mytentoryours]

stats Like these



Only Kribensis ’90 of the last 23 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners was able to complete the Champion double.

All bar Rock On Ruby of the last 18 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January- 44 days).

All bar Rock On of the last 20 and 28 from last 32 winners all ran since Jan 1.

Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle.

Even last year N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton

It's also true that he is one of only 2 Neptune winners out of the last 20 not to run in that calendar year and the only one to have his previous run over 3 miles so if he had beaten with these similar stats last year and easy six length winner of the Neptune would have been missed.

[Morning Glory]

It's also true that he is one of only 2 Neptune winners out of the last 20 not to run in that calendar year and the only one to have his previous run over 3 miles so if he had beaten with these similar stats last year and easy six length winner of the Neptune would have been missed.

good comeback MTOY

Was last years Neptune any good ? Being devil advocate tbh but Cole Garden and Lieutenant C only other horses to take out of it ?

[mayo]

added a poll http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...on-Hurdle-Poll

[Mytentoryours]

good comeback MTOY

Was last years Neptune any good ? Being devil advocate tbh but Cole Garden and Lieutenant C only other horses to take out of it ?

Old Vic is right to point out these stats, but the point I am making is you can't just follow stats rigidly. Considering Faugheen I don't think his chance has reduced by running in the Christmas Hurdle. That stat suggests that a speed horse wins a Kempton but a horse with more stamina wins the Champion Hurdle. Given Faugheen has won over 3 miles that isn't a negative and he has won convincingly off long layoffs before.

[Old Vic]

Old Vic is right to point out these stats, but the point I am making is you can't just follow stats rigidly. Considering Faugheen I don't think his chance has reduced by running in the Christmas Hurdle. That stat suggests that a speed horse wins a Kempton but a horse with more stamina wins the Champion Hurdle. Given Faugheen has won over 3 miles that isn't a negative and he has won convincingly off long layoffs before.

I agree with all that . I suppose one point that I think maybe Hoof made in a stronger way than me is that Willie passed up on two opportunities in Ireland because he wanted to avoid Hurricane Fly. Was that for Faugheens benefit ? If the horse was in any other yard he would have taken his chance. Is Jezkis chance reduced because of the races against the Fly ?

[Hoof]

Jessica

Jezki: He's probably had a better year this year than last year in that he has finished a close-up second twice to Hurricane Fly who I know Willie thinks is as good as ever. The mistake he made last time might just turn out to have been a blessing because it meant he didn't have a hard time in the finish and he's come out of the race very well. Maybe we should have beaten him there. Maybe we're not as good as we think we are. But I still think he's good. He seems to like good ground in the spring. He doesn't really appreciate heavy going. A bit of sun on his back and a bit of warmer weather suits him. He's a horse that likes to be looked at too and the atmosphere at Cheltenham suits him. He's a straightforward horse who likes his routine. He likes to go out to his field with Jetson for an hour. He just gets on and does it. I haven't even asked the question (about jockeys). AP is JP's jockey and he has first choice as to what he wants to ride. If the horse is good good enough it doesn't matter who the jockey is. Wearing a hood definitely does help him. Might I add further headgear? I haven't thought about it, but I can always do something different as I'm a woman. Faugheen is the one I fear. He's the unknown quantity. Hurricane Fly is hard to beat in Ireland but you always fear the younger ones more than the older ones. You could argue he hasn't beaten anything but he looks the part.

[iainmcf]

I dont think it diminishes Faugheen's chances the fact he hasnt run since Dec.Top horses can defy stats and this horse has done everything asked of him so far.Also hes an up and coming horse with plenty time to win Irish champion hurdle races in the future and its usuall Mullins policy to keep his top notchers apart until he has to race them against each other.This is the acid for Faugheen and we'll see if this horse is indeed the real deal, this has to be the race of the festival.