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Thats good to hear Lessey, maybe I need to be more patient and not hit the button so quick and try determine whether the horse will run or not. Anyway, I seem to bottle it and only bet half my usual stake on ap bets.
Haha but you get the odds when no one knows if they're running!
At what stage does everyone start backing for next years Fest?
There are some nice odds you have there.
Even the blind squirrel can find a few nuts
Because I only bet small, I'm probably a bit cavalier in the manner I bet antepost... It looks ok when I'm lucky, but as you can see with several of them, it goes wrong...
Found that Donn Bet from last year I did it as yankee - as an eachway L15 it would have done OK.
Donn has a Cheltenham 2014 one for us...
Just 354 days to go to Cheltenham, then, and here’s a Lucky 15 that might while away the hours:
Champagne Fever, RSA Chase
Best odds: 12/1
If you were mildly surprised that Champagne Fever had the speed to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (guilty), then you hadn’t allowed for Ruby Walsh’s guile. The quick-slow-quick pace that Ruby set allowed Champagne Fever cover the two-mile course with maximum efficiency, while at the same time allowing the race to be run in such a manner that would suit his strengths.
Champagne Fever was a full second faster from the first flight to the second than Rock On Ruby was in the Champion Hurdle. A slow middle section of the race allowed him come home from the second-last flight to the line almost six seconds faster than Rock On Ruby, who went fast-fast-relatively-slow through the Champion Hurdle.
A Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner who will probably go chasing next year, you automatically think that the Arkle will be next season’s ultimate objective for Champagne Fever, and the bookmakers seem to be going along with that line of thinking in putting him in at 6/1 for the two-mile novices’ race. However, there is a huge chance that he is a staying chaser in the making rather than a two-mile chaser, and 12/1 about him for the RSA Chase make more appeal.
Jezki seemed to out-speed Willie Mullins’ horse in the Royal Bond Hurdle over two miles at Fairyhouse last December and, when he won the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown in February over two and a quarter miles, it appeared that the further he went the stronger he was getting.
Winner of the Champion Bumper last year and now winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, two for two at the Cheltenham Festival, he will be a huge player in whichever race he contests at next year’s Festival please God, but 12/1 about him for the RSA is much more appealing than 6/1 about him for the Arkle (or 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle, for that matter).
My Tent Or Yours, Champion Hurdle
Best odds: 10/1
Our Conor was the horse that I wanted to put in the retirement Lucky 15 for the Champion Hurdle, but the world has now gone Our Conor mad, and 5/1 about him now, a four-going-five-year-old, given that only one five-year-old has won the Champion since See You Then won it when you couldn’t get out of school to watch it, is just a little short.
After Our Conor, it was close between The New One and My Tent Or Yours but, at a bigger price, JP McManus’ horse shades it. It was, of course, disappointing on the face of it that he couldn’t win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, but he faced two high-class rivals in Champagne Fever and Jezki, and the three of them were clear of their field in a good time. Also, the race probably wasn’t run to suit the Nicky Henderson-trained gelding’s speed, and he went into the race on the back of a tough race in the Betfair Hurdle. Next year, all going well, you can be certain that he will be trained with the objective of reaching his peak on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival, not on the second Saturday in February.
His performance in winning the Betfair Hurdle off a mark of 149 was the performance of a top class horse. Indeed, his profile is remarkably similar to that of the ill-fated Darlan: same connections, all class, all speed, left deep impression in the Betfair Hurdle, finished second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. And Darlan would probably have raced up the run-in to Champion Hurdle favouritism at Doncaster last month had he not, lamentably, got the final flight wrong.
My Tent Or Yours is only six, and if he wins at Aintree as impressively as Darlan did last season, you can be sure that the 10/1 that is currently available about him for next year’s Champion won’t last very long.
Lord Windermere, Gold Cup
Best odds: 25/1
Lord Windermere still has to step up significantly on what he has achieved to date to get even close to Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs, but he probably didn’t get due credit for winning the RSA Chase last week, and he shouldn’t be a 25/1 shot for next year’s Gold Cup.
A lot of the focus after the RSA Chase was on how unlucky Boston Bob was, and it is true, if Willie Mullins’ horse had jumped the last well, he is a horse who finds lots for pressure, and you can be sure that he would have stayed on up the hill. He might have won, but he might not.
Lord Windermere stumbled a little crossing the path just before the home turn, he lost his pitch on the inside, so Davy Russell had to angle him out around horses early in the home straight. When he did hit the front on the run in, he pricked his ears and hung a little to his right into the whip, leaving the impression that he had plenty more left to give.
He is only seven, this was just his sixth chase, and he seemed to improve for encountering better ground and stepping up in trip to an extended three miles for the first time. We know now that he handles Cheltenham, and he has plenty more to offer as a high-class staying steeplechaser.
At Fishers Cross, World Hurdle
Best odds: 8/1
Nothing hugely original, but At Fishers Cross looks over-priced at 8/1 for the World Hurdle if he remains over the smaller obstacles.
The Rebecca Curtis-trained gelding has been impressive all season, progressing with each run. He beat Neptune Hurdle winner The New One over an inadequate two and a half miles at Cheltenham in January, and he could hardly have been more impressive in winning the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last Friday.
Good ground would be an unknown, just because he has never raced on it, but such is the speed and that class that he shows, there is every chance that he could be as effective on goodish ground as he is on heavy over staying trips, and it is unlikely that we will ever have a fast-ground Festival again anyway. Also, Solwhit will be 10 next year, and Big Buck’s will be 11 so, even if the multiple champ does return in peak condition, another World Hurdle would be a big ask.
Only one horse aged older than nine has won the World Hurdle in its 40-year history, and there is room now for a new youngster to lay claim to the title.
I use to always go on the Punters Lounge but the last few years the Cheltenham Festival section has seen less and less people talking about the greatest show on Turf so looks like I have to come to the right place.
For many a year I have loved to bet on the Festival ante-post where I have had some very good prices and some that have gone wayward which is all about the fun of trying to beat the market. My best prices over the years have been The New One (Neptune) 20/1, Faugheen 16/1, 6/1, 9/2 (Neptune), Our Connor 16/1 (Triumph) and my oh so nearly one was Barizan 50/1 (Triumph) this year again I got on Faugheen before he took apart a grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival.
I thought I would share my ante-post bets as below, some have gone wayward and others I wished I had backed at better prices but like to use to my profit from betting over the year so I'm playing with the bookies money.
Supreme
Douvan 5/2
Seedling 25/1 E/W
Arkle
Un De Sceaux 3/1
Champion Hurdle
Faugheen 12/1 (E/W)
Mares Hurdle
Carole's Spirit 10/1 (E/W)
National Hunt Chase
Wounded Warrior 8/1 (E/W)
Neptune Novices
Tell Us More 16/1 (E/W)
RSA Chase
Kings Palace 6/1
Apache Jack (25/1)
Queen Mother
Sprinter Sacre 3/1
Champagne Fever 7/1
JLT
Vautour 4/1
Ryanair
Don Cossack 7/1
Balleycassey 16/1 (E/W)
World Hurdle
More of That (4/1)
Beat That 16/1 (E/W)
Triumph
Disccismo 33/1 (E/W)
Albert Bartlett
Black Hercules 10/1 (E/W)
Gold Cup
Bobs Worth (16/1) (10/1) E/W
Rocky Creek 50/1 E/W
Foxhunters
Current Event 10/1 E/W
Some I feel have gone wayward but other's I'm hopeful, fingers crossed. Hope everyone has a cracking week, really can't wait now.
I use to always go on the Punters Lounge but the last few years the Cheltenham Festival section has seen less and less people talking about the greatest show on Turf so looks like I have to come to the right place.
For many a year I have loved to bet on the Festival ante-post where I have had some very good prices and some that have gone wayward which is all about the fun of trying to beat the market. My best prices over the years have been The New One (Neptune) 20/1, Faugheen 16/1, 6/1, 9/2 (Neptune), Our Connor 16/1 (Triumph) and my oh so nearly one was Barizan 50/1 (Triumph) this year again I got on Faugheen before he took apart a grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival.
I thought I would share my ante-post bets as below, some have gone wayward and others I wished I had backed at better prices but like to use to my profit from betting over the year so I'm playing with the bookies money.
Supreme
Douvan 5/2
Seedling 25/1 E/W
Arkle
Un De Sceaux 3/1
Champion Hurdle
Faugheen 12/1 (E/W)
Mares Hurdle
Carole's Spirit 10/1 (E/W)
National Hunt Chase
Wounded Warrior 8/1 (E/W)
Neptune Novices
Tell Us More 16/1 (E/W)
RSA Chase
Kings Palace 6/1
Apache Jack (25/1)
Queen Mother
Sprinter Sacre 3/1
Champagne Fever 7/1
JLT
Vautour 4/1
Ryanair
Don Cossack 7/1
Balleycassey 16/1 (E/W)
World Hurdle
More of That (4/1)
Beat That 16/1 (E/W)
Triumph
Disccismo 33/1 (E/W)
Albert Bartlett
Black Hercules 10/1 (E/W)
Gold Cup
Bobs Worth (16/1) (10/1) E/W
Rocky Creek 50/1 E/W
Foxhunters
Current Event 10/1 E/W
Some I feel have gone wayward but other's I'm hopeful, fingers crossed. Hope everyone has a cracking week, really can't wait now.
Welcome onboard Bobsworth. Day 1's profit looks a dead cert for you. The others also look decent but I would buy your day 1 slip @ 2/1.
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