2014 County Hurdle

[Old Vic]

Odds after Betfair Hurdle


Gilgamboa (10), Dell Arca (12), Irish Saint (14), Quick Jack (14), Cheltenian (16), City Slicker (16), Lac Fontana (16), Pique Sous (16), River Maigue (16), Sametegal (16), Vendor (16), Willows Saviour (16), Bayan (20), Clever Cookie (20), Court Minstrel (20), Flaxen Flare (20), Ifandbutwhynot (20), Ptit Zig (20), Rolling Star (20)out, Splash Of Ginge (20), Swing Bowler (20), Tanerko Emery (20), Captain Cee Bee (25), Chris Pea Green (25), Get Me Out Of Here (25), Gibb River (25), Montbazon (25)out, Pine Creek (25), Strongpoint (25), Tennis Cap (25), Calculated Risk (33), Kashmir Peak (33), Manyriverstocross (33), Shotavodka (33)

[Statto]

As the focus is starting to switch to the Festival handicaps, just a little something you might want to take on board when coming to analyse the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle (aside from the fact that the Irish have won six of the last seven runnings) is what a fantastic record novices have in the leading 2m handicap hurdles this season, on top of also winning the latest two editions of the County. The four most prestigious 2m handicap hurdles run in Britain and Ireland during the winter are the Greatwood at Cheltenham, the Ladbroke at Ascot, the boylesports.com at Leopardstown and the Betfair at Newbury, and novices have won the lot. Given that novices have also won seven of the last 20 runnings of the County Hurdle, what price the grand slam?

Dell Arca or Cheltenian anyone ?

[Statto]

Willie Mullins has a great record in this. Is Tennis Cap his horse this year ?

[mayo]

Willie Mullins has a great record in this. Is Tennis Cap his horse this year ?

Ran close last year but think there must be something a bit less obvious in the yard. I'll be waiting for entries and weights.

[Old Vic]

Lac Fontana

He's in the County Hurdle and plenty of other races at the Festival too and he'll run in one of them. We'll take a look at the races before deciding which route he takes.

[Old Vic]

Fascino Rustico will run at Wincanton on Wednesday. If he wins he may scrape in to the County Hurdle #AskPaulNicholls

[Lester]

[Lester]

[mayo]

A few of 10-11 s catching my eye ? will they get in ?

[Lester]

The 2013 entries and eventual cut off below - the bottom horse was last one to get in


0-51125 PETIT ROBIN (FR) 10-11-12 S W Group Logistics Limited Nicky Henderson
10-4321 SO YOUNG (FR) 7-11-08 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE
00-2334 BRAMPOUR (IRE) 6-11-07 Arron & Katya Banks Paul Nicholls
1F1131- GRUMETI 5-11-06 McNeill Family Alan King
613110 CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 5-11-05 Timeform Betfair Racing Club Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE
306/1//1-0 SNAP TIE (IRE) 11-11-03 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
064-112 MIDNIGHT GAME 6-11-03 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
111U3-2 COTTON MILL 6-11-03 Bloomfields John Ferguson
53-2041 PROSPECT WELLS (FR) 8-11-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
U-31003 BALDER SUCCES (FR) 5-11-02 Masterson Holdings Limited Alan King
F-1222(2) HINTERLAND (FR) 5-11-01 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls
121-043 HISAABAAT (IRE) 5-11-01 Dr Ronan Lambe/Dominick Glennane Dermot Weld IRE
1141 FORGOTTEN VOICE (IRE) 8-11-00 Susan Roy Nicky Henderson
16-2233 EDGARDO SOL (FR) 6-11-00 Axom XXXII Paul Nicholls
21/406/-2 KHYBER KIM 11-11-00 Caroline Mould Nicky Henderson
00-6140 MUIRHEAD (IRE) 10-10-13 Mrs Pat Sloan Noel Meade IRE
63-5345 SAILORS WARN (IRE) 6-10-11 Patrick Wilmott Edward O'Grady IRE
0/3F6/-4P RONALDO DES MOTTES (FR) 8-10-11 K & D Ives David Pipe
661112 BRICK RED 6-10-11 Julian Taylor & Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams
115-2U0 CASH AND GO (IRE) 6-10-11 Robin Geffen Nicky Henderson
661-0P1 BALLYNAGOUR (IRE) 7-10-10 Allan Stennett David Pipe
0-060F(0) STARLUCK (IRE) 8-10-10 Andrew Wates David Arbuthnot
1/1123-1 NATIVE GALLERY (IRE) 8-10-10 William Tyrer Ben De Haan
(4)03-0(4)3 CLERK'S CHOICE (IRE) 7-10-09 Michael Banks Michael Banks
2F50-10 OLOFI (FR) 7-10-09 McNeill Family Tom George
301125 SHRAPNEL (IRE) 7-10-09 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
13160B RATTAN (USA) 8-10-08 J A Coleman Willie Mullins IRE
412-340 DONNAS PALM (IRE) 9-10-08 Ian Beach Tim Vaughan
--------------------------------
Cut off before withdrawls

30-1011 TENNIS CAP (FR) 6-10-08 Violet O'Leary Willie Mullins IRE
5-12113 TANERKO EMERY (FR) 7-10-08 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd David Pipe
1-0P405 LOCH ARD (IRE) 5-10-07 Wicklow Bloodstock Limited Willie Mullins IRE
2F11-0(2) RANJAAN (FR) 5-10-07 Highclere Thoroughbred Racing – Ranjaan Paul Nicholls
2100//-60 PUNJABI 10-10-07 Raymond Tooth Nicky Henderson
111442 DISCOTECA 5-10-07 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
6-00144 BOURNE 7-10-07 Timeform Betfair Racing Club & M Taylor Donald McCain
3-4511 MR WATSON (IRE) 6-10-06 Gay Smith Jonjo O'Neill
1210-2P IT'S A GIMME (IRE) 6-10-06 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill
663/0-21 ABBEY LANE (IRE) 8-10-06 Martin Lynch Willie Mullins IRE
1-112 PENDRA (IRE) 5-10-06 J P McManus Charlie Longsdon
51-6260 PRINCETON PLAINS (IRE) 7-10-05 J P McManus Edward Harty IRE
1200-0 SHADOW CATCHER 5-10-05 Mrs Pat Sloan Gordon Elliott IRE
03-P333 DAN BREEN (IRE) 8-10-05 Stuart & Simon Mercer David Pipe
1111-13 SWING BOWLER 6-10-05 David Johnson David Pipe
2-4123P FAR AWAY SO CLOSE (IRE) 8-10-04 Gigginstown House Stud Paul Nolan IRE
311333 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 9-10-03 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
530-405 IL FENOMENO (ITY) 7-10-03 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
6114- FORMIDABLEOPPONENT (IRE) 6-10-03 J P McManus Noel Meade IRE
133///-110 KING OF QUEENS (IRE) 8-10-03 Miss Ashley Scanlon Tom Mullins IRE
U14/0/2-0 GENERAL MILLER 8-10-03 Henry Ponsonby Nicky Henderson
1-121 MR MOLE (IRE) 5-10-03 J P McManus Paul Nicholls
0-31101 IFANDBUTWHYNOT (IRE) 7-10-02 Claire Hollowood & Henry Dean David O'Meara
1030/3/-0 MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (IRE) 8-10-02 Mrs M C Sweeney Alan King
P6-6031 PRINCE OF FIRE (GER) 8-10-02 J P McManus Charlie Swan IRE
00-0325 ARNAUD (IRE) 5-10-02 Gigginstown House Stud Charles Byrnes IRE
2511-30 CLARET CLOAK (IRE) 6-10-02 Hawksmoor Partnership Emma Lavelle
2P020B THOMAS EDISON (IRE) 6-10-02 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE
4-21013 VALDEZ 6-10-02 Riverdee Stable Alan King
2FP404 BALLYADAM BROOK (IRE) 9-10-01 W Horgan Terence O'Brien IRE
4-31023 TED VEALE (IRE) 6-10-01 John Breslin Tony Martin IRE
4262-13 KNIGHT IN PURPLE 9-10-01 A J Wall, G Hicks & N Hooper John Mackie
155002 CONSTANT CONTACT 6-10-00 Delboy & Rodney Charlie Longsdon
1-F222U CARAVEL (IRE) 9-10-00 Oceans Racing Tim Vaughan
PF2110 BEEF TO THE HEELS (IRE) 7-10-00 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
30-5225 DISTANT MEMORIES (IRE) 7-10-00 Oceans Racing Tim Vaughan

----phil smith estimated cut off
0-21121 KIAN'S DELIGHT 5-9-13 Yeh Man Partnership Peter Bowen
210-100 LYVIUS 5-9-13 Trevor Hemmings Nicky Henderson
1140-00 KAZLIAN (FR) 5-9-13 Twelve Pipers Piping David Pipe
040/00-0 THE BETCHWORTH KID 8-9-13 Henry Ponsonby Michael Bell
36300-3 REDERA (IRE) 7-9-13 Peter William Partnership Tony Martin IRE
2F1332 KINGS LAD (IRE) 6-9-13 G F Gingell Colin Tizzard

[Lester]

So thinking this years cut off around the 10-9 mark ?

maybe a bit lower - regal encore might scrape in with a 5lb penalty ?

Minella Foru , Thomas Edison, Never enough time, Gilgamboa other options for AP

[mayo]

Never Enough Time tipped on ATR

At the start of the season you would have to say that this six-year-old gelding would have been a massive price to be even a runner at the festival let alone a leading contender. He was beaten in his first three starts over hurdles but his improvement started with an easy win in a 2m handicap hurdle at Gowran in January and followed that up with a smooth victory in a stronger contest at Leopardstown two weeks later. The handicapper had no choice raising him 24lbs in the ratings (116 to 140) but at least he is guaranteed to get a run off that mark if he is to take his chance. It`s worth mentioning he was ridden to victory by the very capable conditional rider Ger Fox who is well worth his 7lb claim and it`s difficult to know if he will keep the ride considering Tony McCoy is first choice rider for his owner J P McManus. Either way he will have an excellent pilot on board whichever way you look at it and I will be disappointed if this improving son of Oscar is not involved at the business end. (WL)

[mayo]

Arctic Fire for @thespeiler

However, try as I might, I can’t resist backing Arctic Fire (16/1) for the County Hurdle. There are plenty of reasons to wait. Firstly, he’s really ground dependent – he must have decent ground. The drying forecast is encouraging, and with the race being on the Friday the ground may well be at it’s quickest then. However, there are still 10 days to go and weather forecasts that far out are notoriously unreliable. We saw last year how rain on Gold Cup day made the ground really soft because of the high water table. If that happens again, Arctic Fire would have little chance – which ought to be reason enough to wait until the morning of the race.

The second reason is more difficult in the context of a column putting up tips. Arctic Fire is a really buzzy character, (races in a hood) and it remains to be seen how he takes the razzamatazz of the Festival. Ruby will need to be at his best to get him switched off so he can use his turn of foot late on. It would be better to be making a decision whether to back him after seeing how he takes the preliminaries. For those who like betting in running, watching how he settles in the first half mile or so is probably an even better way to play it.

And that’s before we get to the opposition. The handicapper seems to have had a bit of a blind spot with last year’s Bumper 2nd Regal Encore, (8/1). On the face of it, he’s been a bit disappointing over hurdles but he won a weak event cosily on his 2nd run and was trying to give 7lb to Seeyouatmidnight last time. Given that Seeyouatmidnight is now rated 155 and Regal Encore was only beaten 2l, it doesn’t take a genius to believe he might be chucked in off 130.

In Regal Encore’s case the problem connections have is that they’ve got him too well handicapped and he might not get a run. Whilst 130 would have got a run in several recent renewals, for the last two years the cut off has been 132. He’s also in the Martin Pipe over an extended 2m4f, (he looked to stay well enough in the Bumper, so the Martin Pipe might be his race,) but 130 wouldn’t have got in that for the last 2 years either. Regal Encore therefore heads for the Imperial Cup to get a 5lb penalty. If all goes well he could clearly win the County, but what could be a hard race in testing ground on Saturday first isn’t ideal, and he might go for the Martin Pipe anyway.

Regal Encore fits into the category of a classy horse that hasn’t yet shown his form over hurdles. The other 3 I fear most are the other typical type of winner – those who haven’t been able to show their class recently. First up is Montbazon (25/1) who I fancied at big prices for the Champion Hurdle at the start of last season, only for him to miss the whole campaign with a setback. Alan King had reported him a bit babyish as a novice and that he was the sort that he’d expect to improve a lot as he matures. Given he was leading the Supreme field coming to the last but wasn’t quite streetwise enough at the business end, that maturity might make a mockery of a mark of 140. He travelled well for a long way on his return after nearly 2 years off in the Betfair Hurdle on unsuitably soft ground. However, he was beaten 46l in the end and hasn’t yet proved he retains his ability.

Cheltenian (14/1) is another on the comeback trail. He won the 2011 Bumper in good style, having previously given Montbazon 10lb and beaten him at Kempton. After 2 years off injured he returned in a hot novice at Doncaster last February, when splitting the now 144 rated Minella Forfitness and Arkle fancy Valdez, (albeit getting 6lb from the former and 10lb from the latter.) It was too big an ask in a vintage Supreme at that stage, but he returned this season with a facile win at Uttoxeter, before a good 4l 4th off 134 in the Betfair. That was his first experience of a competitive handicap, he should have learnt lots from it and he still looks nicely in off 137. He won the Bumper on good but his breeding suggests he’ll be best with plenty of cut.

Having put up Cash And Go (33/1) for the last two renewals of the Greatwood, he’s in danger of becoming a cliff horse. He’s clearly had plenty of issues but Nicky Henderson has described him being potentially a Grade 1 horse and, if he can put it all together on the big day, then he’s much better than a mark of 138. The likely drying ground will really suit him and he’s one to consider once we’ve seen how the vibes are nearer the day.

There will be obviously be a stack of other dangers too, but having been through the race I really think that if Arctic Fire puts it all together he could be chucked in off 141. All season I’ve been convinced he was the best horse in the Royal Bond. I wouldn’t be over-critical of David Casey as Arctic Fire is clearly headstrong and he was presumably instructed to try and get him settled at the back. However, he got into all sorts of trouble in the straight in a steadily run race, and when he got some daylight he flew home showing much the best turn of foot, going down by 1½l. If he’d beaten The Tullow Tank that day he’d be at least 10lb higher here.

The British handicapper hasn’t been totally fooled and has upped him 3lb from his Irish mark to 141 but I think if he was with any other stable he’d be in the Supreme. However, the same owners have Wicklow Brave. I’m not convinced Wicklow Brave is the better of the two, but he is the more straightforward and, with both looking 2 milers, you can understand why Arctic Fire is being aimed at the County where the big field and fast pace should suit ideally. He hasn’t had the benefit of Ruby riding since he won his maiden, and that can make all the difference here.

Given that he is ground dependent and might run his race in the preliminaries, he’s not the type that’s guaranteed to run his race. He’s therefore not an each way steal, he’s a win only bet. However, if he goes the right way, I think he might be a Grade 1 horse in open company on decent ground next season – and if all the horses produce their best here, I reckon he’s the winner of this.

It’s great that you can watch Festival previews online these days and on Monday night at the Direct Aid For Africa event in Galway, the forthright Patrick Mullins was very bullish about his chances, making him clearly Closutton’s best handicap chance of the week. I also can’t get out of my mind Willie Mullins comment at Christmas that “lots of people think Arctic Fire is the best novice hurdler around,” (before prophesising correctly that he wouldn’t handle soft ground at Leopardstown).

I doubt any trainer has ever brought a more powerful overall squad to the Festival than Willie Mullins does this year. If he dominates the week, especially in the novice divisions, then I can see Arctic Fire being a 4/1 favourite for this – so I’m giving in to temptation and getting stuck in now.

1pt Arctic Fire to win the County Hurdle @ 16/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/tips/2014/the-fire-of-temptation/863687

[Old Vic]

[Lester]

Baltimore won't get in county - only takes him up to 10 2