Cheltenham Festival Leading owner

[Guest]

Cheltenham Festival top owner


Boyles have priced this up


JP McManus 1
Mrs S Ricci 9/4
Graham Wylie 6
Gigginstown House Stud 7
Barry Connell 12
John Breslin 25
Andy Stewart 33

Initial reaction was that 9/4 might be value.


Boyles have confirmed conditions
It'll be settled by races won & it'll be with places in event of a tie.

Click Here to Get a Boylesports account and Free Bet.

[Old Vic]

It would be a useful exercise to get each owners horses and split them into potential races - most wont want two in the same one so might highlight a few accas. I'll do a few but help appreciated

[Old Vic]

Mrs Ricci

Champion Hurdle/ World Hurdle/ Mares

Annie Power
Zaidpour

Novice Hurdles

Faugheen
Vautour
Moyle Park
Indevan
Renneti
Clondaw Court

(probably more )

Juveniles

Adriana Des Mottes (FR)

Bumper

Royal Caviar

Champion Chase/Ryanair/Gold Cup

Arvika L
Marito

Novice Chasers

Ballycasey
Champagne Fever
Djakadam (FR)

Random Others

Mikael D'Haguenet (FR)
Call Me Bubbles (FR)
Tarla
Shamar
Darrooun

[gigginstown]

Here is a list of Gigginstown winners in Ireland since Cheltenham last year. Ones in bold Cheltenham horses ?

6/01/14 Leopardstown H 17f NovCh 1/7 Trifolium (FR) 11-12 Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Nov. S'chase €52,800
18/01/14 Naas S 19f Hdl 1/6 Rule The World (GB) 11-8 Limestone Lad H'dle €19,800
12/01/14 Navan S 16f NHF 1/11 Milsean 11-12 Trim (Pro-Am) INH Flat Race €5,600
12/01/14 Navan S 23f MdnHdl 1/10 Wounded Warrior 11-9 M'dn H'dle €7,000
06/01/14 Thurles H 18f Ch 1/4 Toner D'Oudairies (FR) 11-10 Thurles Racecourse Supporters Club S'ch €17,160
01/01/14 Fairyhouse SH 16f MdnHdl 1/22 Lieutenant Colonel (GB) 11-10 New Year M'dn H'dle €7,000
31/12/13 Punchestown H 24f BegCh 1/9 Rogue Angel 11-11 Beg.S'ch €8,400
27/12/13 Leopardstown S 20f NHF 1/11 No More Heroes 11-5 Paddy Power iPad App INH Flat Race €7,000
27/12/13 Leopardstown S 16f HcpHdl 1/7 Rocky Wednesday 11-3 Paddy Power H'cap H'dle €17,160
27/12/13 Limerick H 19f HcpCh 1/16 Make A Track 11-0 Tim Duggan Memorial H'cap S'chase €33,000
26/12/13 Limerick H 22f MdnHdl 1/17 Horendus Hulabaloo 11-8 Anglo Printers M'dn H'dle €7,350
22/12/13 Thurles S 22f MdnHdl 1/18 Thunder And Roses 11-12 INH Stallion Owners EBF M'dn H'dle €7,350
21/12/13 Navan SH 16f NovHdl 1/6 Valseur Lido (FR) 11-7 Christmas Novice H'dle €9,100
21/12/13 Navan SH 16f NHF 1/10 Wounded Warrior 11-11 Athlumney INH Flat Race €5,600
14/12/13 Fairyhouse YS 16f BegCh 1/8 Mozoltov (GB) 11-12 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beg. S'chase €7,700
13/12/13 Downpatrick G 18f Hdl 1/5 Arnaud 11-5 Customer Care Christmas H'dle €7,000
08/12/13 Punchestown GY 16f NovHdl 1/9 The Game Changer 11-4 www.punchestown.com Rated Novice H'dle €9,450
08/12/13 Punchestown GY 20f BegCh 1/12 Bright New Dawn 11-12 Beginners S'ch €9,100
07/12/13 Navan GY 16f MdnHdl 1/19 Urticaire (FR) 11-7 Dunmoe (Mares) M'dn H'dle €7,000
01/12/13 Fairyhouse GY 20f NovCh 1/6 Don Cossack (GER) 11-10 Drinmore Novice S'chase 49,500
01/12/13 Fairyhouse GY 16f Hdl 1/8 Analifet (FR) 10-6 Bar One Racing Juvenile 3-Y-O H'dle €18,150
21/11/13 Thurles Y 18f BegCh 1/16 Trifolium (FR) 11-12 www.thurlesraces.ie Beginners S'chase €5,600
20/11/13 Fairyhouse S 16f Hdl 1/4 Ally Cascade 11-12 Premier Jump Weekend H'dle €7,000
17/11/13 Punchestown Y 16f NHF 1/14 Lieutenant Colonel (GB) 11-1 Dick Grainger Memorial(P-A)INH Flat Race €5,600
17/11/13 Cork SH 16f MdnHdl 1/19 Real Steel 11-12 I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF M'dn H'dle €9,100
17/11/13 Cork SH 16f MdnHdl 1/14 Valseur Lido (FR) 11-7 www.racinghomeforeaster.com M'dn H'dle €7,000
16/11/13 Punchestown Y 16f Hdl 1/5 Analifet (FR) 11-0 Ballymore GAA Christmas Fair 3-Y-O H'dle €9,100
15/11/13 Dundalk A 6f Hcp 1/8 Dark Skies 9-9 Crowne Plaza Race & Stay Package Nursery €7,000
10/11/13 Navan Y 20f Hdl 1/5 Dedigout 11-12 Boylesports Download App Lismullen H'dle €26,400
09/11/13 Naas YS 19f BegCh 1/18 Road To Riches 11-12 Beg. S'chase €8,400
07/11/13 Thurles GY 16f NHF 1/15 Wrath Of Titans 11-4 Toboradora INH Flat Race €4,900
03/11/13 Cork S 16f MdnHdl 1/11 The Game Changer 11-7 Paddy Power Betting Shops M'dn Hdle €7,000
03/11/13 Cork S 20f MdnHdl 1/14 Azorian 11-12 Paddy Power INH Stal.Own. EBF M'dn H'dle €9,100
02/11/13 Down Royal YS 24f Ch 1/6 Roi Du Mee (FR) 11-10 JNwine.com Champion S'chase €85,400
30/10/13 Punchestown YS 16f MdnHdl 1/15 Empire Of Dirt 11-12 Follow On Facebook & Twitter M'dn H'dle €7,000
28/10/13 Galway H 22f BegCh 1/9 Don Cossack (GER) 11-12 W.B.Gavin & Co. EBF Beginners S'chase €11,900
28/10/13 Naas YS 20f Hdl 1/6 Rule The World (GB) 11-10 Hospitality At Naas Racecourse H'dle €13,200
27/10/13 Galway H 17f NovCh 1/5 Shrapnel 11-1 Faber Audiovisuals Ballybrit Novice S'ch €19,800
27/10/13 Galway H 16f MdnHdl 1/7 Very Wood (FR) 11-7 Corrib Oil M'dn H'dle €7,700
27/10/13 Galway H 20f NovHdl 1/6 Band Of Blood 11-7 Barna Waste Rated Novice H'dle €10,150
24/10/13 Thurles G 22f BegCh 1/10 Balnaslow 11-12 www.thurlesraces.ie Beginners S'chase €5,600
24/10/13 Thurles G 16f MdnHdl 1/11 Clarcam (FR) 10-13 Devils Bit 3-Y-O M'dn H'dle €5,250
18/10/13 Downpatrick S 23f BegCh 1/8 Ipsos Du Berlais (FR) 11-12 Autumn Beginners S'chase €5,600
17/10/13 Punchestown G 16f MdnHdl 1/14 Somethingwonderful 11-12 Buy Your 2014 Annual Badge M'dn H'dle 7,000
17/10/13 Punchestown G 23f Ch 1/5 Toner D'Oudairies (FR) 11-6 Star Best For Racing Coverage S'chase €19,470
16/10/13 Punchestown G 20f BegCh 1/4 Bonisland (GB) 11-10 Panoramic Restaurant Beginners S'chase €8,400
14/10/13 Limerick G 16f MdnHdl 1/10 Devils Bride 11-11 Rite Of Passage Riders Chall. M'dn H'dle €7,000
13/10/13 Limerick G 19f Ch 1/2 Far Away So Close 11-5 PricewaterhouseCoopers S'chase €19,140
12/10/13 Fairyhouse GF 16f BegCh 1/10 Shrapnel 11-12 Fairyhouse For Fundraisers Beg. S'chase €5,600
04/10/13 Gowran Park S 16f MdnHdl 1/20 Bishops Road 11-12 Gowran Park M'dn H'dle €7,000
02/10/13 Sligo H 20f Ch 1/5 Toner D'Oudairies (FR) 11-6 Martin Reilly Motors Hyundai i40 S'chase €11,025
17/09/13 Listowel S 20f NovCh 1/6 Toner D'Oudairies (FR) 11-12 John F. McGuire Novice S'chase €14,520
21/08/13 Bellewstown G 8f Mdn 1/9 Bleeding Hearts 9-5 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction M'dn €9,100
15/08/13 Tramore G 22f Ch 1/7 Toner D'Oudairies (FR) 11-5 Noel Cummins Bookmakers S'chase €8,750
30/07/13 Galway G 22f Ch 1/5 Rathlin (GB) 11-10 Latin Quarter S'chase €15,510
29/07/13 Galway Y 16f Hcp 1/20 Edeymi 11-0 Connacht Hotel (QR) H'cap €42,700
21/07/13 Tipperary GF 16f NHF 1/6 Devils Bride 12-0 Jim Ryan R'course Services INH Flat Race €7,350
21/07/13 Tipperary GF 24f Hdl 1/7 Make Your Mark 11-10 Ballykisteen Hotel & Golf Resort H'dle €7,350
19/07/13 Kilbeggan G 22f BegCh 1/13 Stonemaster 11-12 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners S'ch €7,700
05/07/13 Wexford GF 17f Ch 1/5 Far Away So Close 11-8 Hook Head S'chase €8,050
23/06/13 Gowran Park GF 16f HcpHdl 1/14 Security Breach 10-7 Jack Duggan Memorial H'cap H'dle €10,150
11/06/13 Roscommon S 16f NHF 1/17 Devils Bride 12-0 Ladies Day July 8th INH Flat Race (Div 1) €4,410
10/06/13 Roscommon GF 16f Ch 1/6 Arnaud 10-10 Dermot Hughes Car Sales S'chase €11,200
03/06/13 Listowel G 19f HcpCh 1/18 Mr Cracker 11-5 Kevin Broderick Memorial H'cap S'chase €16,170
03/06/13 Naas GF 10f Hcp 1/12 Love And Cherish 9-3 Tipper Road (Fillies) H'cap €7,000
29/05/13 Punchestown GF 22f Ch 1/7 Rathlin (GB) 11-3 Follow Punchestown On Facebook S'chase €13,200
29/05/13 Punchestown GF 24f HcpCh 1/14 Dont Back Down 11-1 Punchestown For Events H'cap S'chase €10,150
24/05/13 Cork G 16f Hdl 1/5 Make Your Mark 11-2 Friday Evening Racing H'dle €9,100
16/05/13 Tipperary H 18f NHF 1/12 Unic De Bersy (FR) 12-0 p2p.ie (C&G) Pt-To-Pt INH Flat Race €5,250
14/05/13 Killarney S 17f BegCh 1/11 Arnaud 11-6 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners S'ch €7,700
13/05/13 Killarney S 17f NHF 1/14 Bishops Road 11-9 Killarney Racegoers(Ladies)INH Flat Race €4,900
12/05/13 Killarney S 20f Ch 1/6 Rathlin (GB) 11-9 www.themalton.com S'chase €10,850
09/05/13 Clonmel Y 16f NHF 1/14 Rough Justice 12-0 Free Admission Ladies May 23rd Flat Race €4,900
06/05/13 Curragh GY 16f NHF 1/8 Made In Germany 11-11 The Irish Field INH Flat Race €8,750
04/05/13 Limerick S 16f MdnHdl 1/16 Band Of Blood 11-12 www.limerickraces.ie M'dn H'dle €7,000
30/04/13 Ballinrobe S 16f Hdl 1/7 Rocky Wednesday 11-6 Treacy's Pharmacy Rated H'dle €10,500
30/04/13 Ballinrobe S 17f HcpCh 1/8 Uncle Tom Cobley 11-7 P & D Lydon Plant Hire H'cap S'chase €10,500
26/04/13 Punchestown H 20f NovHdl 1/3 Un Atout (FR) 11-10 Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hdle €50,400
25/04/13 Punchestown H 20f Hdl 1/10 Rye Martini 11-12 Stephens Green Hibernian Club H'dle €14,850
25/04/13 Punchestown H 16f NHF 1/15 Turnandgo 12-0 Kildare Post INH Flat Race €7,700
24/04/13 Punchestown S 25f Ch 1/8 Sir Des Champs (FR) 11-10 TheTote.com Punchestown Gold Cup €91,500
23/04/13 Punchestown S 16f HcpHdl 1/20 Il Fenomeno (ITY) 10-6 bragbet.com H'cap H'dle €19,800
23/04/13 Punchestown S 16f NHF 1/22 Very Wood (FR) 11-2 Finlay Motor Group INH Flat Race €6,300
16/04/13 Fairyhouse Y 17f BegCh 1/12 Toner D'Oudairies (FR) 11-12 @fairyhouse Beg.Sch €8,400
09/04/13 Gowran Park G 16f NovHdl 1/3 Midnight Oil (GB) 11-8 Brian Cody & Aidan O'Brien Novice H'dle €9,450
09/04/13 Gowran Park G 20f BegCh 1/12 Toostrong (FR) 11-12 Eoin Larkin&Sports Injury Clinic Beg.Sch €8,750
03/04/13 Downpatrick G 18f Hdl 1/7 Shrapnel 11-8 Dial-A-Bet H'dle €7,000
01/04/13 Cork SH 20f BegCh 1/10 Dont Back Down 11-9 Corkracecourse.ie (QR) Beginners S'chase €8,400
01/04/13 Fairyhouse Y 18f NHF 1/10 Akorakor (FR) 10-11 INH Flat Race €30,000
31/03/13 Cork SH 24f Ch 1/8 Roi Du Mee (FR) 11-10 Imperial Call S'chase €18,150
18/03/13 Navan H 24f HcpCh 1/16 Panther Claw 11-6 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nov. H'cap S'ch €33,000
17/03/13 Wexford H 16f MdnHdl 1/12 Security Breach 11-7 New Ross M'dn H'dle €5,250
17/03/13 Wexford H 20f Hdl 1/12 Gates Of Rome 11-2 St. Patrick's Day Rated H'dle €10,150
16/03/13 Down Royal H 20f BegCh 1/10 Shattered Dream 11-3 Sean Graham Beginners S'chase €5,600


also need to add in Last Installment, First L, Bog Warrior

Have Bryan now too

[mayo]

FFS Giggy how can we read that

Hurdlers

? Bugger all

Juvenile Hurdler

Analifet ( ruled out ?)

Novice Hurdlers

Valseur Lido
Lieutenant Colonel
Akorakor
Azorian
Made in Germany
Turnandgo
Outlander
Very Wood
Chasers

First L

Last Installment
?

Novice Chasers ( these are good )

Trifolium
Don Cossack
Mozoltov
Bright New Dawn
Road to Riches
Rogue Angel

Dont think they bother with Cheltenham bumper but probably have some handicap good things with Elliott and Martin.

Think Gigginstown are the value.

Barry Connell would have outside chance but probably better off putting Our Conor, The Tullow Tank, Foxrock and Mossey Joe into a lucky 15. Might also be better return from backing the Ricci good things in the to win any race market ?

[skippymac6]

It's going to be decided in the hadnicaps where JP will pick up at least one with the amount or horses he has.

I see that my old friend Bog Warrior is entered this weekend in Punchestown? He also has an entry in the Irish Hennessy and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I thought that we'd see him over hurdles this year but he could be another one for the festival. He'd be perfect for the Ryanair if he proved to be able to handle fences again....

[Old Vic]

The Ryanair is wide open if cue card and al ferof going for Gold Cup. JP will have plenty of plots lined up and had a good hand in champion and world hurdles. carlingford lough in rsa too - think I'd rather be a layer than backer at evens though.

[Terry]

Pity all Andy Stewarts horses are in the one race

Who is John Breslin.

[mayo]

Did that Barry Connell lucky 15 for an interest £15 pays overt £7.5k

[mayo]

John Breslin has a few horses with Martin - Ted Veale & Blackmail best known of them.

[Statto]

Here is main table

[Old Vic]

"I thought Vautour looked very big (at Punchestown). I think he'll come on for that run," Ricci told At The Races.

Profiles Vautour (FR) Faugheen (IRE) Clondaw Court (IRE) Renneti (FR)
"He's only run twice and it would be nice to get another run into him. He's a possibility for the Deloitte, where I'd like to see him go.

"I have a lot of confidence in him. I think he could be something special."

Another Ricci-owned novice hurdler with Festival aspirations is Faugheen, who is three from three over timber this season.

The Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle and the longer Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle appear his likely Festival options, with Ricci hinting the former could be the preferred choice.

He said: "He's a horse we like a lot, he's a horse that's hard to keep straight. We struggled with that last year, but we've been very lucky this year and Willie has done a brilliant job.

"He certainly has toe, so I think two miles, two and a half miles will be good.

"He can get the three miles as he's shown (but) he runs a bit free, that may be a concern.

"If we can keep him right, I think he's got a great chance wherever he runs."

Keen to split his aces, Faugheen's possible Neptune participation could allow Ricci's Clondaw Court to be his main candidate for the Albert Bartlett.

He was unimpressive at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, but won with his head in his chest at Thurles last month.

"He's another one that's been hard to keep right. He needed that run at Christmas, he was very impressive the last day," said Ricci.

"He's only had two runs and it would be nice to get another run into him. He's seven, so he is getting on.

"He's a horse I'm looking forward to seeing over fences, but something like the Bartlett would suit him."

The odd one out among Ricci's wealth of talent in the division could be Renneti, who fell when likely to score at Limerick in December.

The owner said: "I like Renneti. He ran a cracker in the Royal Bond and then fell when he was home and hosed over Christmas.

"I don't know if he'll be one for the (Cheltenham) team. I have a lot of confidence in him and he's entered in a couple of races coming up.

"We're very fortunate to have quite a few novice hurdlers, so we'll have to see if he makes the team or not, but there are plenty of races at places like Fairyhouse, Aintree and Punchestown."

[mayo]

Yer man is copying me again

I like speciality bets for the Festival. From a value perspective they often present good opportunities as the odds compilers don’t have much experience to guide them and they’re thinly traded. There’s been a bit of a dearth of innovative new markets this season, but I reckon there is an angle on the top owner.

Boylesports market is: 5/4 McManus, 6/4 Ricci, 7/1 Wylie, 7/1 Gigginstown & 12/1 bar.

The rules for this type of market are crucial. If it was based on prize money then it would be a lottery, but it’s based on number of wins. The crucial element is the count-back rule. In the event of two or more owners having the same number of winners, whoever has had the most 2nd places will be leading owner. If none of them have had a 2nd place or they’ve had the same number of 2nd places, it’ll be whoever had the most 3rd places, and so on.

The importance of this is that it stacks the deck hugely in favour of owners with an army of runners. If there’s a tie, (as there has been in 3 of the last 5 years – see below,) it’s very likely that the ‘bigger’ owner will prevail on count-back.

Recent results are:
2013 – McManus & Wylie (2)
2012 – McManus (5)
2011 – Gigginstown (3)
2010 – Hemmings, Johnson & Hammer and Trowel Syndicate (2)
2009 – McManus & Smith (2)
The total winners in the last 5 years for the front four in the market are – McManus (10), Ricci (3), Wylie (2) & Gigginstown (6).

When JP McManus tied in 2009 and 2013, on both occasions he also had three 2nd places and two 3rd places. The owners he tied with didn’t have another placed horse – so he’d have won this market 3 times in the last 5 years.

Last year McManus had 25 Festival runners, the Riccis had 8, the Wylies 3 & Gigginstown 12. It’s just about odds-on a tie based both on the last 5 years results and the nature of the market, (ie a tie with 2 wins or possibly 3 wins is always a likely result.) The advantage the extra runners give McManus, and to a lesser extent Gigginstown, on count-back, needs factoring in.

Turning from the theory and past results - to assess this year’s market I’ve looked at the 13 races where entries have already been made. They are the 5 open Grade 1s, the 4 level weights novice chases and the 4 Grade 1 novice/juvenile hurdles.

What I’ve done is assumed that each horse will run once and in the race for which its shortest priced. If it’s 9/1 then it has, (assuming for simplicity that the price accurately reflects its chance,) a 10% chance of winning. I’ve then added all those percentages up to give a theoretical number of winners.

The results are that, from those 13 races, you’d expect the following theoretical number of winners:
McManus 1.47
Ricci 1.40
Wylie 0.63
Gigginstown 1.25

Before any analysis of those numbers is done, the obvious point is that Gigginstown look to have a much better chance than Boylesports’ market suggests.

The reason the Riccis are such a short price, (and have been backed in from 9/4,) is that they have 5 short priced horses – Faugheen is 7/2 for the Neptune, Annie Power is 7/2 for the World Hurdle, Champagne Fever is 4/1 for the Arkle, Vautour is 9/2 for the Supreme and Ballycasey is 5/1 for the RSA. Those 5 comprise 0.99 of their theoretical 1.40 winners – ie 70%.

By contrast, McManus has 3 horses at single figure prices – My Tent Or Yours is 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle and At Fishers Cross & More Of That are 6/1 and 8/1 respectively for the World Hurdle, (0.42 of his theoretical 1.47 winners – ie 29%). Gigginstown have only 2 horses at a single figure price – Trifolium who is 6/1 for the Arkle and Rule The World who is 8/1 for the World Hurdle, (0.25 of their theoretical 1.25 winners – ie 20%).

My guess is that punters have looked at it on the simplistic basis of who has the short priced horses - and so piled into the Riccis. That doesn’t take into account the relatively small number of runners the Riccis are likely to have compared to McManus and Gigginstown, or the other 14 races. Nor does it factor in the disadvantage the Riccis have under the count-back system.

Looking at numbers of runners - the Riccis have 14 different horses entered in the races I’ve included, McManus 31 & Gigginstown 34. It’s weight of numbers that gives McManus the best theoretical chance in those 13 races and mean Gigginstown’s theoretical chance is not dissimilar to the Riccis. In practice outsiders are often too short in the markets as layers don’t want to risk getting caught out by a ‘live’ one. On that basis, the Ricci’s theoretical 1.40 winners in those 13 races is probably a bit understated compared to McManus’ 1.47 and Gigginstown’s 1.25.

We then need to try to assess the impact of the other 14 races. We clearly don’t know what will be entered yet – so it’s much harder to quantify. Having horses with Willie Mullins means the Riccis have realistic hopes in the Bumper, (Royal Caviar & Tarare,) but they haven’t had any success in handicaps, which form the bulk of the remaining races – and they’ve had very few runners in those handicaps.

By contrast, of JP McManus’ 10 winners in the last 5 years, 7 have come in handicaps. That’s partly due to weight of numbers but his teams are particularly adept at targeting them. 2 of Gigginstown’s 6 winners in the same period have been in handicaps. This isn’t surprising when you consider the Riccis have about 40 horses in training, Gigginstown about 150 and McManus over 250.

Once you factor in the Ricci’s chances in the Bumper against McManus & Gigginstown’s chances in the handicaps, I think Gigginstown have a similar chance to the Riccis. The short price about McManus also becomes much more understandable.

Not only do the theoretical numbers suggest Gigginstown are far too big a price – when you analyse them, it backs that feeling up.

Given how many of the top horses are concentrated in a few owners hands now, it’s really hard to envisage a surprise result – it’s very likely one of McManus, the Riccis and Gigginstown will win. Looking at the only other 2 owners quoted at less than 25/1, the Wylies have 12 horses entered for the 13 races with Felix Yonger (10/1) and Briar Hill (5/1), both having sound chances, (plus they have Shaneshill and Black Hercules for the Bumper.) Their lack of depth of runners makes them rank outsiders for this and there’d be better value in putting their horses in accumulators.

Barry Connell (12/1) has 3 horses with decent chances in Our Conor (5/1), The Tullow Tank (11/1) and Mossey Joe (5/1), but has little else, (7 horses entered for the 13 races.) For him to win it’s likely at least 2 of those 3 would have to win – so, like the Wylies, there’d be more value backing them in doubles and trebles.

I’ve priced it up as:
6/5 – McManus
100/30 – Riccis
7/2 – Gigginstown
22/1 – Wylies
33/1 – Connell
50/1 – any other winner

JP McManus is clearly the most likely winner, but his price is probably about right. Once the handicaps are factored in and with the count-back so much in his favour, it’s arguable he should be shorter, but of his 3 horses at single figure prices, I doubt More Of That will run in the World Hurdle, I don’t fancy At Fishers Cross and My Tent Or Yours has about the chance his odds suggest.

Whilst an initial look at the likes of Vautour, Champagne Fever, Faugheen, Ballycasey and Annie Power suggests the Riccis have a strong hand – the reality is that they probably need at least 3 winners to prevail given the count-back system. Those 5 horses theoretically should produce 0.99 winners and if they continue not to be a factor in the handicaps, their chance isn’t as strong as it first appears.

Gigginstown are about double the price they should be – purely because they lack high profile horses this season. JP McManus won this in 2009 by winning the 3m handicap chase and the cross country – weight of numbers counts for a lot. My guess is that the absence of obvious stars will only make the O’Leary’s more determined to win a handicap or two after last year’s succession of near misses, (no winners and four 2nd places) – in case their big guns like Trifolium, Rule The World, Last Instalment and First Lieutenant don’t fire. Given their investment in the game, two disappointing Festivals in a row is something they’ll be determined to avoid - Michael O’Leary should never be underestimated.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/tips/2014/overpriced-gigs/862994